Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Social Security COLA conundrum

“The 2026 COLA is likely to be 2.7%, according to a recent projection by The Senior Citizens League. That’s a notch above this year’s COLA of 2.5%, which bumped up the average monthly benefit by roughly $50 for retired workers, and applies to more than 70 million retired senior citizens and disabled workers.” But does […]

Jobless claims suggest continuing, but resolving seasonality issues

– by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims have been relatively subdued for the past month. Some have suggested that this is a byproduct of the large immigrant deportations which have recently taken place. Last week I noted that, “comparing the SA and NSA readings in the past several months suggests that [unresolved seasonality] has affected […]

New home sales: the final shoe in the housing sector has dropped

– by New Deal democrat In this month’s report on new home sales for July, the most important news was at the tail end, which I’ll get to last. As per my usual intro, while new home sales are the most leading measure of the housing market, they are very noisy and heavily revised – which […]

Highest Homicide Rates in 2024 (Cities)

Guess what 13 of the 20 U.S. cities with the highest murder rates were in Republican-run states. Sending in an untrained National Guard. They were not trained for controlling crowds of civilians. At Camp Lejeune in 1970, they were training us and had established mock cities to train in for practice. Pres. Trump says (in a […]

Trump administration creeping towards socialism

Socialism is the form of economics in which the government controls the means of production. The Trump administration now controls 10% of Intel and is looking to buy shares in other private corporations. How is that not creeping socialism? “The United States government’s 10 percent stake in Intel could harm international sales for the semiconductor […]

NFTs and The Greater Fool Theory of Investing

Years ago, my chairman became an NFT enthusiast. At one point, he assured me “I’m not joking.” I responded: “That’s what I’m afraid of.” NFTs are a manifestation of The Greater Fool Theory of Investing. Like disco and yacht rock, they had their day. But eventually, the fools are left holding the bag: “Flash forward […]

How much more will ~556,000 Michigan residents pay if the improved #ACA subsidies expire?

“ACA Signups” (updated) A review of the amount of premium increases Michigan residents can expect when the ACA subsidy increases are removed EOY 2025. Temporary ACA subsidies were passed as part of the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) in 2021. It included two years of enhanced subsidies (2021 and 2022). The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), […]

Intel and Trump Administrative Reach Historic Agreement

“Intel and Trump Administration Reach Historic Agreement to Accelerate American Technology and Manufacturing Leadership,” Intel Newsroom SANTA CLARA, Calif.– Intel Corporation today announced an agreement with the Trump Administration to support the continued expansion of American technology and manufacturing leadership. Under terms of the agreement, the United States government will make an $8.9 billion investment […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for August 18 – 22

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were no big changes this week, but what continues to stick out in the data as far as I am concerned is just how strong consumer spending continues to be: weekly retail spending was up nearly 6% YoY, and restaurant reservations – […]

Lowe’s and The Home Depot . . .

Weathering Q1 Storms and Looking to the Horizon One always wonder how these mega hardware stores are doing in a not-so-great economy. I suspect the tariffs will impact some of the products. If anything, the on and off tariffs, 10% one day and 20% a week later must throw their planning off. Pay less and […]