Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Employment growth is dead in the water,

tomorrow we will find out about production and sales  – by New Deal democrat With no news today, let’s take a look at why two releases tomorrow are especially important. Let me begin with employment, which is “dead in the water.”  I’ve written before about how manufacturing and construction employment, and now the entire leading sector […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for September 8 – 12

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While job growth has almost completely stalled, and inflation shows signs of picking up, both consumer spending and the stock market continue to plow forward at full speed. It’s an odd situation that may be powered almost exclusively by people at the top […]

Trump Tax Cuts Benefiting Healthcare Companies More than People

A partial of a much larger report. The complete report can be found here. As taken from: Americans for Tax Fairness “Sick Profits.” This portion of the article looks at the differences in profits and where those profits are going. The additional profits (mostly gained from tax breaks) are not going to reductions in healthcare […]

Vehicle sales in August looked pre-recessionary

– by New Deal democrat The QCEW for Q1 of this year will be released at 10 AM Eastern time this morning. It should also finalize the numbers for last year. Why is that important? Because it will also set the preliminary benchmark revisions for the monthly jobs numbers last year and into this year. […]

August real average wages and nonsupervisory payrolls: some signs of flagging but no recession signal yet

– by New Deal democrat Now that we have the consumer inflation number for August, let’s take a look at real wages and income for ordinary workers. In the jobs report last Friday, we learned that both average hourly earnings and aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers increased 0.4% in August. Yesterday we learned that consumer inflation […]

“Abundance Denied”

Building and investment is stifled by the current regulatory regimes. Hence abundance denied. Of course, to gain some of the abundance Sam Walker discusses need investments newer infrastructure to support faster trains. he system is lacking the funding. Sam Walker . . . My following the railroad industry comes from growing up at Hollidaysburg, PA. […]

As consumer inflation shows more signs of re-acceleration, the Fed is being forced to pick its poison

– by New Deal democrat The Fed is really facing a no-win situation. Between the recent employment reports, the QCEW, and even this morning’s jobless claims report, the jobs market has clearly been weakening, and may be on the very cusp of contraction, implicating the Fed’s dual mandate to strive for full employment. But this morning’s […]

Initial claims have a Texas-sized increase

– by New Deal democrat I’ll post about the CPI later this morning. But unusually, the biggest news of the morning was initial jobless claims, which spiked to 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week. The four week moving average increased 9,750 to 240,500. Meanwhile, with the typical one week delay, continuing claims were […]

August producer prices largely a reflection of volatile food and energy prices

– by New Deal democrat Consumer price inflation will be reported tomorrow. In the meantime, this morning producer prices for August were reported. Normally I don’t pay too much attention to producer prices – and I won’t this month, either. But let me put that in some context. In the past, when producer prices have outstripped […]