Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Beachfront property and sunk costs

While we were grad students at UNC-Chapel Hill, we visited my wife’s uncle and his family on the Outer Banks. He built fishing boats, and lhey lived in a modest house in Buxton, near Hatteras lighthouse. Hatteras lighthouse is the tallest lighthouse in the US. In 1999, Hatteras lighthouse was moved from its original location […]

Jobless claims continue higher YoY trend

– by New Deal democrat We are in the part of the year when, post-Covid, likely residual seasonality has resulted in a declining trend in new jobless claims.  Not this year. On a week over week basis, initial jobless claims did decline -33,000 from last week’s outlier 264,000 to 231,000, and the four week averaged declined […]

The Kimmel firing was strictly business

Look, I haven’t watched TV in over 20 years. I’ve never seen a Superbowl game in my life, and the only time I’ve seen Jimmy Kimmel is clips on Youtube. So I can’t boycott Disney because I wasn’t patronizing them in the first place. Anyway, Bob Iger cares about stockholders first, last and always. “If […]

Schumer not folding?

According to Punchbowl News, via Political Wire, Schumer sounds like he is going to hang tough in budget negotiations.  I think it is possible Democrats could win a shutdown fight, although the most knowledgeable political observers disagree.  But if this is real, not political theater for angry base voters, then the Democrats should have a […]

August housing construction: even more recessionary than before

– by New Deal democrat A puzzling relationship this year has been that the housing data has been classically recessionary for a number of months, and yet the economy has not rolled over. And this morning’s dismal report on housing construction was even more recessionary.  Let’s start with the most dismal number of all: permits […]

There is a economic bad moon on the rise

Credence Clear Water ear worm for you. I see the bad moon arisingI see trouble on the wayI see earthquakes and lightnin’I see bad times today . . . Credit Credence Clearwater Unfortunately, it is true the nation overall is heading for bad economic times under the leadership of Tr_mp and his followers who are […]

August industrial production: overall neutral trend continues

– by New Deal democrat So much is imported that industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” but it remains an important if diminished economic indicator. It has been trending generally sideways this year, and that trend continued in August. Headline industrial production (blue in […]

Medicaid and Hospital Healthcare

Tr__p is planning to cut Medicaid because he can do so with Republican support. Somehow, he has to find a way to pay for the tax breaks for the upper income followers. Doing so will have consequences for both the low-income citizens and also for the healthcare infrastructure. One Republican Senator is starting to take […]

Consumers say “hold my beer” to DOOOMing about Sales

– by New Deal democrat Retail sales is the first of two very important indicators we got this morning. Per yesterday, with employment growth “dead in the water” since April, consumer spending – which leads future employment – is the single most crucial element of a turning point.   It really is incredible how it takes a […]

Hold onto your wallet

St. Reagan famously said that the most terrifying words in the English language were “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” Now that the Roberts SCOTUS has decided that Donald Trump *is* the government, Reagan’s quip takes on a new salience. “For more than half a century publicly-traded US corporations have reported earnings […]