– by New Deal democrat I’m on the road today, and won’t have time to update anything until tonight. So here is what to look for in initial and continuing jobless claims. Remember that the most important figure for forecasting purposes is the YoY% change. One year ago, initial claims came in at 221,000, the […]
Or you can talk about something else. I did this in early August also. As I said before, this used to be a weekly process and sometimes was very successful. As a subscriber. I am posting part of a Paul Krugman commentary from the past. It may interest you. You can always use your own […]
Answering the question as a part of: “Immigrants and the economy,” Economic Policy Institute. Just how many migrants and immigrants are living in the United States? There were 47.8 million migrants and immigrants who resided in the United States as of 2023 (see Figure A), which includes all foreign-born persons of any immigration status and those […]
A recurring theme in shut-down commentary is that Democrats cannot trust Trump and congressional republicans to keep any deal they make to fund the government. This seems like a valid concern. Some commentators cite this as one of the main reasons for Democrats to refuse to fund the government. But unless the Democrats have a […]
New home sales: despite the noisy sharp increase in August, the last pre-recession metrics are firmly negative – by New Deal democrat Have I mentioned before that new home sales, while perhaps the most leading of all the housing data, suffer from being very noisy and heavily revised? Yes, I think I have, just about […]
– by New Deal democrat In addition to my system of long and short leading indicators, and the weekly high frequency data, the third system I use to mark to market my views of the economy is what i call “the consumer nowcast.” Introduction I have various systems for tracking the economy — including high-frequency weekly […]
American hospitals are under siege. The Trump administration just announced an increase from $1500 to $100,000 per year for H-1B visas that are used by foreign-trained physicians. The recently passed GOP budget dramatically cuts Medicaid funding, cuts that will drive the closure of many rural and community hospitals that are on the edge of insolvency. […]
The Trump GOP’s Medicaid cuts will cause many rural hospitals to close. Now, Trump has come up with a way to hasten that process. “NBC News medical analyst Dr. Vin Gupta warned of the consequences that President Donald Trump’s imposed $100,000 annual visa fee for highly skilled foreign workers could have on those seeking health […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Along with the continuing resilience of consumer spending, which I wrote about yesterday, the other surprise in the data has been the strong rebound in manufacturing indexes in the past 45 days, as evidenced by several of the regional Fed situation reports […]
– by New Deal democrat One of this things that has puzzled me for the last few months is why consumer spending has remained so strong in the face of so many headwinds in the economy, some from horrible policy coming out of Washington, some embedded in the long leading and short leading sectors. There is […]