Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Initial and continuing claims: yellow caution flag reinstated

Initial and continuing claims: yellow caution flag reinstated  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims rose sharply last week, up 28,000 to 261,000 (an 18 month high). The 4 week average rose 7,500 to 237,250, still lower than its April peak. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1.757 million: When we […]

The hard Financial Lessons for Two Entities

The End of Easy Money: Bankruptcy Filings Pile Up at Fastest Rate since 2010, Wolf Street, Wolf Richter. t’s turning into a banner year for corporate bankruptcy filings. Easy Money has caused all kinds of excesses, fueled by yield-chasing investors, in an environment where the Fed had repressed yields with all its might. Those yield-chasing […]

Scenes from the employment report: an important trend in self-employment; and real aggregate payrolls

Scenes from the employment report: an important trend in self-employment; and real aggregate payrolls  – by New Deal democrat We’re still in the week of drought following the payrolls release last Friday. Today let’s take a look at a few more items of interest from the Household Survey side. As you probably recall, the bottom […]

Primary Care Takeover by Commercial Interests

It appears Primary Care is becoming a hot market practice for nonhealthcare US retail and healthcare corporations to invest in today. Big corporations are chasing the Primary Care market worth about $260 billion in 2022, which is big enough to attract attention. The other factor is a shift from FFS healthcare model to a Fee […]

Small Town and Rural Hospitals Are at Risk of Closing due to Funding

This is an interesting take on small hospitals and also covering smaller hospitals in small towns or rural areas. It is an issue as the larger hospitals buy them up. Rather than invest in them, they close them down. One reveal is those hospitals closings coming as a result of what private insurance pays for […]

The consumer may finally be faltering

The consumer may finally be faltering  – by New Deal democrat At this point I think the “smart” econ take is that either any recession is very much delayed, or even not going to happen at all. While everything is possible, I’ve argued in several places that if you date a potential business cycle peak […]

Scenes from the May employment report: leading indicators and the big picture

Scenes from the May employment report: leading indicators and the big picture  – by New Deal democrat As I wrote Friday, the May employment report was deeply bifurcated, with a strong Establishment survey, but a weak Household survey.   Let’s take a look at some of that bifurcation, focusing on the leading indicators. There are […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for May 29 – June 2

Weekly Indicators for May 29 – June 2 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Much like yesterday’s employment report, which showed a deep bifurcation between the Establishment and Household Surveys, the economy as a whole is also showing a deep bifurcation between elements well into recessionary […]