Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Teacher Pay Penalty

EPI has a good article on Teacher salaries. I stole part of it to paste on Angry Bear The Teacher Pay Penalty reached a record high in 2024: Three decades of leaving public school teachers behind, Economic Policy Institute Over the past three decades, stagnant weekly wages of public school teachers have fallen further and […]

The “Big Picture” nowcast and forecast

 – by New Deal democrat We are well into our data blackout, as no federal economic data whatsoever was released this week. Even sites that functioned in previous shutdowns, such as the Treasury Department’s “Daily Treasury Statement,” have been taken offline. This is simply not the way a functioning country works. So let me conclude this […]

ADP Unemployment Report

Late Report on by Angry Bear U.S. (un)employment. Just did not think of it. ADP says private sector sheds jobs as government shutdown halts data, October 1, 2025 Companies shed 32,000 jobs last month, according to data from payroll processor ADP, marking the biggest private sector decline in two-and-a-half years — and yet another warning […]

The advance-decline line and the (maybe) AI-fueled consumer spending bubble

– by New Deal democrat I rarely comment on the financial markets directly, since my focus in on the economy and how it impacts ordinary working and middle class Americans, especially in the near future. But in some cases, the financial markets themselves play an important role in that picture. And this is one of those […]

Achieving historically ‘normal’ GDP growth rates will be impossible

The U.S.-Born labor force will shrink over the next decade: Achieving historically ‘normal’ GDP growth rates will be impossible, unless immigration flows are sustained Economic Policy Institute Reduction of net immigration flows would lead to much slower labor force and GDP growth If we assume that any changes in population levels do not change labor […]

Consumer spending has continued to increase

– by New Deal democrat I concluded my post yesterday with the conclusion that “while housing and trucking are plainly recessionary, the broader manufacturing orders outlook and consumer purchases of vehicles are not.”  Today I want to expand on that by taking a broader look at the main coincident measures of expansion vs. recession, and focus […]

Auto and truck purchases give conflicting signals on expansion vs. recession

 – by New Deal democrat The typical post-jobs report lull in the data is amplified this month (of course) by the fact that there was no jobs report this month! If there is a tiny silver lining beginning to appear, it is that the Administration is making noises about reinstating the health care subsidies that has […]

Estimated Initial and Continuing Claims Last Week Continued in the Neutral Range

I can not drop the f-bomb here as it would not be looked at kindly by most. It is no surprise to me, New Deal democrat doing additional work to present on his site and at Angry Bear. We are and I am very fortunate to have New Deal democrat presenting his data at Angy […]

Campaign Finance Reform Should be the Focal Point of any Progressive Policy Agenda

Two point six billion dollars flowed into the 2024 election mainly focusing on the election of D. Tr_mp. I also believe there was a dislike for the candidate who replaced Joe Biden as the Democrat presidential candidate. A second time a well-qualified person (a woman) failed to be elected. I jabve heard all the arguments […]