Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Repeat home sales show continued deflation (Case Shiller) vs. stabilization (FHFA) (update with current graphs)

 – by New Deal democrat Despite the government shutdown, the FHFA did publish its repeat home sales index this morning. And since the S&P Case Shiller index is from a private entity, that was published as well. Between those two and the NAR’s existing home sales report, we still have pretty good visibility into that 90% […]

“A Naked Demonstration of the Administration’s Hypocrisy and Incompetence”

Maybe this fits and maybe it does not. Every time I read about another trumpism, my mind goes back to what Welch said to McCarthy. “”Until this moment, Senator, I think I never really gauged your cruelty or your recklessness.” When McCarthy tried to continue his attack, Welch angrily interrupted, “Let us not assassinate this […]

Tabulated state initial and continuing claims continue neutral trend indicating weak expansion

 – by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated notwithstanding, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Then by applying the same adjustment as was used for the […]

What Does Medicaid Spend on Undocumented Immigrants?

Information like this is hard to come across. It does answer the issues of the impact of undocumented citizens and their impact upon healthcare in the United States. I did search for deeper detail. I am finding Medicaid information to be in withheld. This article is from MedPage. If you do not have access to […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for October 20 – 24

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This is a good time for a reminder that very little of the high frequency data has been affected by the federal government shutdown, because almost all of it comes from the Fed or regional Feds, States, and private sources. That data continues […]

September consumer inflation: re-accelerating trend more established, with shelter (!) being the only silver lining

– by New Deal democrat Wow, some actual new economic data on which to report – how refreshing! To be clear, the only reason this was reported is that it was necessary for the calculation of the annual cost of living increases to Social Security checks. Had these been frozen there would have been a “million […]

“average increase of $2,300 in annual costs due to Trump’s tariffs”

If you were thinking an increase in inflation was not going to happen. I can not imagine why you would think such. We have a president who is ill-equipped mentally to tackle a nation such as the United States. His economic plans are seriously flawed. And he really is seriously challenged on economic issues. I […]

home sales, prices, inventory all rangebound

 – by New Deal democrat With the continuing desert of official data, the NAR’s existing home sales report – which normally is of secondary importance – temporarily becomes our best look at the housing market.  To repeat what I’ve mentioned an number of times in the past, after the Fed began hiking rates in 2022, mortgage […]

Supply Chain and Manufacturing Issues Due to Politicking on Healthcare

I worked in Supply Chain and then Manufacturing as a first lower-level position fresh out of college. Eventually, I did cost model plastic, rubber, and metal parts including the many upstream and down-stream processes to complete a particular part. It was fun because I could negotiate with the supply base on cost based upon volume, […]