Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Tennesseans are weird

I grew up in Tennessee, but since graduating from UT-Knoxpatch, I’ve only returned a few times for special occasions. A recent poll says that 61% rate the state’s economy as “very” or “fairly good,” and 53% feel things in Tennessee are going in the “right direction.” Which direction is the right direction? “According to the […]

Republicans still Working Hard to Gain a Tax Cut at the Expense of a Million or so People

Quick update on what is going on with healthcare for citizens. Republicans are still working hard to cut healthcare benefits to 1.5 to 2 million citizens. Let’s not forget the reasoning for doing so. Tru_p’s tax cuts to the upper 1 or so percent of the population not needing a tax cut need a balance. […]

Q3 employment costs: probably the “least positive” since the pandemic

 – by New Deal democrat The employment cost index, which was updated this morning through Q3, typically gets much less attention than the monthly payrolls report. But in this circumstance it is entitled to more notice, since the monthly data has only been posted through September as well. Additionally, one important advantange of the Employment Cost […]

October JOLTS report: red flag warning for employment sector in worst report since the pandemic

– by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for October is now the most current official monthly indicator for the jobs sector. And it was emphatically not good. In fact, it was red flag recessionary. In the past year, in contrast to much other data in the jobs sector, the JOLTS reports had been very […]

Heritage Foundation’s Influence

An interesting piece by Paul Krugman. Never really looked closely at the Foundation. Too busy with other issues I have worked with over the years. Things such as supply chain, transportation, manufacturing, throughput analysis, etc. Not sure I would call the Foundation a fraud; but then, I do not have the bandwidth to make such […]

While capital spending increased sharply, yet more evidence of consumer weakness

– by New Deal democrat On Friday I noted that real personal spending on goods, especially durable goods, had declined in September. If we have reached a tipping point on that metric, a recession in the near future looks much more likely, even as spending on services continues. Late last week we also got further evidence […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators December 1-5

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha There are some minor changes, but no big turns in trends. But the recent change in trend that has been further reinforced is the sharp deceleration in growth in withholding tax payments that began in October. The bulk of the evidence suggests that […]

Working with Social Security

My university offers tenured faculty over the age of 60 two retirement options: (1) a buyout, where the faculty gets a full year’s worth of salary and benefits in exchange for immediate retirement and (2) phased retirement, where the faculty can choose reduced salary (70%, 50% or 30%) with reduced responsibilities for up to five […]

Real income rises, but real spending on goods may be turning down

– by New Deal democrat Personal income and consumption is one of the two big monthly reports on the state of the average American, in addition to the jobs report. This month it has the added virtue of being the “least stale” monthly report, as it was issued only five weeks later than scheduled. Ever since […]

Student Loans for Future Public Service Employees and Other Students

Student Loans are something Congress likes to mess with as an issue. The issue being, students are making off with millions or billions of dollars. Nothing could be further from the truth. Student loans will follow people till their death whether they can pay it or not. Congress has no issues in troubling young students […]