Strong Q3 GDP, but long leading components are mixed; first preliminary positive signs for production in October – by New Deal democrat Because today is a travel day for me, I am going to keep my comments about the much-delayed Q3 GDP report brief. As was obvious, a 4.3% annualized real GDP print is very good, […]
How Many Manufacturing Jobs Has Trump Lost? CEPR In Donald Trump’s imagination, trillions of dollars are being invested in the United States. In the real world, factory construction, adjusted for inflation, was down by more than 10 percent from its year ago level, as of August (the most recent data available). Manufacturing employment, based on the data […]
By changing the mindset of governing – by Jeff Dauphin “We the People” know our government is not working. For decades, Americans have said they want leaders who work together, confront problems honestly, and make decisions that push the country forward. Yet the officials we send to Washington keep repeating the same self-defeating patterns—polarization, gridlock, […]
On October 1, 2025, the first day of the most recent government shutdown, Donald Trump’s net disapproval was 12 points. By the time the shutdown ended 6 weeks later, his net disapproval had risen to 16 points. Democrats should keep this in mind as the government funding wars heat up again. The Dems do not […]
Happy Holidays! In this final update for 2025, we’re going to take a look at how tariffs are burdening everything on and under your Christmas tree, comparing import data from the first nine months of 2024 and 2025. The cost of decking the halls has gone up by hundreds of millions of dollars, as everything […]
– by New Deal democrat This is going to be a sparse week for data, with the exception of tomorrow’s long-delayed Q3 GDP report, and jobless claims on Wednesday. Sadly, so much of the data is still missing or stale that the best source for up-to-date information is in the regional Fed reports, most […]
What Can Democrats Do Now? J.P. McJefferson Thoughts Democrats need to move on and move on fast. What really scares me is whether Democrats, Independents, and any others who care about democracy can, over the next couple of years, preserve the concept of “Free & Fair Elections,” and pack the 2026 campaigns with credible, charismatic […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Update: All of the trends that we have been seeing for the past several months appear to be becoming more entrenched. That includes the re-normalization of the yield curve on the positive side, and weak withholding tax payments and transportation metrics on […]
– by New Deal democrat The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is “the gold standard of US employment measures. It is an actual census of 95%+ of all employers, who must report new employees for purposes like unemployment and disability benefits. Because of this, it is used for the final revisions, a/k/a benchmarks, for monthly […]
– by New Deal democrat A truncated version of the CPI was reported for November this morning. Since no data was collected for October, the monthly change in those values was not calculated, the Census Bureau apparently having elected not to publish with the cumulative two month changes since September. Nevertheless, the two month numbers are […]