– by New Deal democrat New home sales were updated for the second time since the shutdown, with data only through October – i.e., stale. The silver lining is that this is a long leading indicator, so it remains of value. Normally I save inventory for last, but in view of the importance of new […]
– by New Deal democrat We finally got our first “regular” CPI report since September this morning. Caution is still warranted, however, because the October-November kludge is still present in the base from which December’s monthly change was calculated. But the bottom line is that the series’ all reverted to their pre-shutdown trend, with the […]
If you’ve noticed you are paying more these days for milk and oranges, Tuesday’s inflation report is unlikely to surprise you. The report shows U.S. inflation cooling slightly in December. But it also demonstrates how the price pressures consumers actually notice with regard to food, energy, commodities other than the former, and services other than services. You have probably […]
– by New Deal democrat On Friday housing permits, starts, and units under construction were finally reported for the first time in four months, since September’s report for August. The bad news is that the report only updated through October, so we are still two months behind. The very qualified good news is that, since […]
A recent piece in the Wall Street Journal . . . Erica York “Do Tariffs Cause Inflation? New Studies Offer Surprising Answer?” The article highlights two economic papers that have found tariffs usually have not led to higher inflation (or only slight pickups), likely because tariffs tend to hurt the economy and reduce demand. If you read my November newsletter, you would not be surprised by those […]
– by New Deal democrat [Note: Housing permits, starts, and units under construction were also updated this morning for September and October. I will post my remarks on this report on Monday; but in summary I can say it remained recessionary, with some possible “green shoots” that may indicate a bottom.] This morning’s jobs report for […]
– by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for November was not stale inasmuch as it was at best delayed by a week or two. But nevertheless, since it was for November it remains somewhat old news that can only help to confirm other data we have already received. Last month I concluded that the […]
– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims, which are the best up-to-the-moment measure of the labor market. Initial claims rose 8,000 to 208,000, while the four week moving average declined -7,250 to 211,750. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.914 million: Number of Initial […]
– by New Deal democrat As I indicated yesterday and earlier today, we got some stale data on factory orders this morning, as well as a JOLTS report for November. I’ll take a look at those tomorrow. In the meantime, the big news of the morning has to be the very good ISM services report for […]
– by New Deal democrat I will write about the biggest economic release of the day, the ISM services report for December, later. In the meantime, here are two other important data releases for December, one from a private source (ADP), and the other from the BEA’s GDP updates. As an initial matter, I don’t […]