Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Consumer inflation is about 3.0% YoY. The economy has experienced Deflation since last June

Properly measured, consumer inflation is only about 3.0% YoY, and the economy has experience Deflation since last June  – by New Deal democrat One month ago, I “officially” took the position that inflation had been conquered, and that, properly measured, the economy had actually been experiencing deflation since last June. This morning’s report only confirmed […]

AAR: March Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year

AAR: March Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2023 03:25:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission by AAR to Bill McBride. Click on graph for larger image. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and […]

March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators

Scenes from the March employment report 2: unemployment recession indicators  – by New Deal democrat A reminder: I may be offline for the next couple of days. In the meantime, yesterday I looked at the 5 leading indicators contained in the employment report, and summarized how they either signal recession now or within the next […]

Scenes from the March employment report 1: Leading sector indicators

Scenes from the March employment report 1: leading sector indicators  – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news this week until Wednesday’s CPI report, and as a side note, I might be offline for a day or two later this week. In the meantime, today and tomorrow let’s take a look at some […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators for April 3 – 7

Weekly Indicators for April 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.  Probably unsurprisingly, the big news this week was the effect of the revisions to the initial jobless claims data, and also the turning down of several sectors in the monthly jobs report. […]

CRFB’s FINAL ANALYSIS OF 2023 

CRFB’s FINAL ANALYSIS OF 2023  SOCIAL SECURITY TRUSTEES REPORT  Analysis of the 2023 Social Security Trustees’ Report, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Social Security Dale Coberly: I reported a few days ago on CRFB’s “preliminary analysis” of the 2023 Social Security Trustees Report.  I hoped to show then that though CRFB reported “true” facts, […]

March jobs report: leading sectors turn down, pre-recessionary report still quite positive

March jobs report: leading sectors turn down in a pre-recessionary, but still quite positive, report  – by New Deal democrat Unsurprisingly, my focus on this report, like the last few reports, was on whether residential construction jobs turned negative or not, whether manufacturing and temporary jobs continued on their downward trajectory, and whether the deceleration […]

Overdue Selection of Stuff from My In-Box

The Overdue Selection of Stuff from My In-Box. Some days are good at Angry Bear. Getting a background in how to run a Blog by myself at this time. Sometimes run out of ideas. Fortunately, I have good influx of articles hitting my In-Box daily. I recently cleaned out a couple of thousand emails going […]

The last positive leading indicator, Revisions causes initial claims to capitulate

Revisions cause initial claims, the last positive leading indicator, to capitulate  – by New Deal democrat Initial and continuing claims underwent some serious revisions with this week’s release. Rather than attempt an explanation myself, here is the nub of the BLS’s own explanation: Beginning … [this week], the methodology used to seasonally adjust the national […]