Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Producer price inflation: it’s a gas!

Producer price inflation: it’s a gas! I normally do not pay much attention to producer prices, but with the huge increase in spending earlier this year and the ensuing supply bottlenecks taking center stage, the course of inflation has emerged as the most pressing economic issue. To recap briefly, with the second round of pandemic […]

Jobs, Trade Deficit, Construction Spend, and Factory Inventory Reports

MarketWatch 666: Commenter and Blogger RJS; October’s jobs report; September’s trade deficit, construction spending, and factory inventories, et al Major economic reports that were released the past week included the Employment Situation Summary for October from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and three September reports that included metrics which were either estimated or included in last week’s […]

Money Illusion in the Twenty-First Century

Money Illusion in the Twenty-First Century The starting point for any consideration of inflation is that wages (and interest, profits, and rents) are prices.  Every transaction has two sides, and one person’s price is another’s income.  In the aggregate, leaving aside international complications, inflation can’t have either a negative or positive effect on aggregate real […]

A very strong report putting to rest questions about the strength of the expansion

October jobs report: a very strong report putting to rest questions about the strength of the expansion  In the light of the last two month’s relatively “poor” jobs readings, an important question was what was going to happen with revisions. As we will see below, they really delivered! – big positive revisions to both of […]

Three reasons for the decline in Biden’s (and Democrats’) popularity

Three reasons for the decline in Biden’s (and Democrats’) popularity Dan Guild follows presidential approval closely and uses it to model election outcomes, including State level as well as Congressional and Senate races. He’s been very consistent, and very good. For the past several months, his hair has been on fire about a real decline […]

September Income and Outlays, Durable Goods and New Home Sales

Commenter and Blogger, RJS MarketWatch 666 3rd quarter GDP, September’s income and outlays, durable goods, & new home sales The key economic reports that were released this week were the 1st estimate of 3rd quarter GDP and the September report on Personal Income and Spending, both from the Bureau of Economic Analysis ….the week also saw the release […]

September Durable Goods: New Orders Down 0.4%, Shipments Up 0.4%, Inventories Up 0.9%

Commenter and Blogger RJS at Marketwatch 666; “September Durable Goods: New Orders Down 0.4%, Shipments Up 0.4%, Inventories Up 0.9%“ September Advanced Report Durable Goods Manufacturer Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, US Census The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for September (pdf) from the Census Bureau reported that the value of the […]