JOLTS report for October: similar to previous 2 recoveries, but a decline in actual hiring may be a warning This morning’s JOLTS report for October showed a jobs market recovery that, for one month at least, paused. Openings and quits were up (good), but layoffs and discharges were also up (bad) while hires were down […]
Four measures of labor market losses in the pandemic Below is a graph of 4 ways of measuring the downturn in the labor market due to the pandemic: 1. Payrolls (blue) – this is the headline jobs number from the establishment survey2. Civilian employment (green) – this is the equivalent number from the household survey.3. […]
Fact: Contrary to what President Trump claims, the Postal Service can’t solve its financial problems by raising “the price of a package by approximately four times.” Steve Hutkins at Save The Post Office discusses the financial issues facing the United States Postal Service and why the Postal Regulatory Commission new plans to increase prices may […]
Yellen And Akerlof Or Akerlof and Yellen? I have already posted about the nomination of Janet Yellen to be Treasury Secretary, a historic first and most duly deserved. She is great and totally appropriate, and I have already bloviated at length on that. I am now going to discuss a more obscure and odd matter, […]
November data starts out strong with a very positive ISM manufacturing index The first November data point, the ISM manufacturing index, was reported this morning, and while it declined from last month, it remained very strongly positive. The overall index declined from 59.3 to 57.5, and the more forward-looking new orders index declined from 67.9 […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha A little later than usual, my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there has been no big deterioration, there are further slight signs that the out of control pandemic is taking a toll on the recovery that has been […]
October personal income declines, but still well above pre-pandemic peak; increased likelihood of negative pandemic reversal in jobless claims Before I turn to this week’s report on jobless claims, a brief word first about October’s personal income and spending. Although personal income declined in October compared with September, more importantly depending on how you measure […]
The good mayor of El Paso is at wit’s end. He is worrying himself into the grave. The City’s hospitals and morgues are overflowing. Seems that the people have to work to eat, and, if they work, they get the virus and get sick, and, too many die. Damned capitalism is as deadly as the […]
Jobless claims: the beginning of a pandemic reversal? This week’s new jobless claims rose from last week’s pandemic lows, while continued jobless claims again declined to new pandemic lows. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 18,264 to 743,460. Seasonally adjusted claims rose by 31,000 to 742,000. The 4 week moving average, […]
– by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Nothing definitive yet – after all weekly data is going to be noisy – but there is some indication that the recovery in coincident conditions in the economy have ceased to make […]