More on deteriorating tax withholding receipts and jobs reports – by New Deal democrat I have a new post up at Seeking Alpha, laying out all of the short leading indicators, and concluding conditions have now been met for a recession to begin at any point in the next 6 months. There’s one graph I intended […]
What matters most to families, moms who have to make things happen, and dads who struggle to provide for their family. This is a rerun from “Annie Asks You” emphasizing our job is not done. The work is unfinished and for a brief moment we came close. We are not done. I hope you enjoy […]
New Deal Democrat’s Weekly Indicators for November 14 – 18 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. It had to happen sooner or later. Earlier this year, based on the long leading indicators, I went on “Recession Watch.” Now, for the first time in a very […]
(Dan here…lifted from One handed Economist by David Zetland’s Interesting Stuff)
“Social Security and Medicare finances bolstered by growing economy,” (axios.com), Neil Irwin. Two different pieces of information going on here. The pie chart below shows were we were in 2021 for Medicare. I have not compared the pieces of information to see if they conflict. I do not have charts for Social Security, I can […]
Existing home sales decline to recessionary levels; prices have clearly turned down; low inventory still a problem – by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this morning, my primary interest in existing home sales at this point is prices. [Note: graphs below for sales and prices does not include October] For the record, existing home […]
Core inflation using house prices rather than imputed rents – by New Deal democrat Later this morning existing home sales will be reported for October, which will mainly be of interest to me only for what happened with prices, and secondarily whether the problem of low inventory which has existed for 3 years is moving in […]
Housing permits and starts continue to fall, but housing under construction continues to (slowly) rise – by New Deal democrat The monthly numbers for housing permits, starts, and single family permits all declined this month. Permits (red in the graph below) declined -38,000 annualized to 1.526 million annualized, and starts (blue) declined -62,000 annualized […]
Before you start chattering at me about this and that detail, let’s get an understanding. I am supply chain and manufacturing or manufacturing and supply chain. If there was a job opening in either and with appropriate pay, I was more than likely in. Companies hiring me usually did so because they had a problem. […]
October retail sales: consumers: “We’re not dead yet!” – by New Deal democrat Retail sales, my favorite consumer indicator, was reported this morning for October. And it was a good number, up +1.3% nominally, and up +0.5% after adjusting for inflation: On the bright side, this was the highest absolute number since April. On the […]