Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Durable Goods: Orders Up 1.8%, Shipments Down 0.5%, Inventories Up 0.8%

Blogger RJS,@ Market Watch 666, “August Durable Goods: New Orders Up 1.8%, Shipments Down 0.5%, Inventories Up 0.8%“ The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for August (pdf) from the Census Bureau reported that the value of the widely watched new orders for manufactured durable goods increased by $4.6 billion or 1.8 percent […]

The producer portion of the economy continues to do well

The producer portion of the economy continues to do well First, a little blogging note. This week is light on data. House prices tomorrow, jobless claims Thursday, then a bunch of month end/beginning data on Friday. In other words, don’t be surprised if I take a day off. This morning the report on durable goods […]

Means-testing the Child Tax Credit

Matt Yglesias has published an interesting essay at his substack by Simon Bazelon and David Shor arguing that Democrats should introduce stricter means testing into the Child Tax Credit. Their key points are as follows: The current CTC design already has means-testing for very high incomes, which means that the administrative burdens associated with means-testing […]

Addendum to US crude supplies at 35 month low

Addendum to US crude supplies at 35 month low; Total oil and product supplies at 6 1/2 year low – Angry Bear (angrybearblog.com) by RJS Authors of Angry Bear Posts and I converse from time to time. We talk about what they write, what its content implies, and what they are thinking. This note came […]

Job Growth Twice as Fast in States Retaining UI

August Job Growth Was Twice as Fast in States That Retained UI – “People’s Policy Project,” Matt Bruenig, September 21, 2021 I ran across this author and his site while reading a commentary (referencing Matt Bruenig’s story) on McDonalds experience in Denmark at Yves Smith’s Naked Capitalism. Since my background over 40 odd years has […]

US crude supplies at 35 month low; Total oil and product supplies at 6 1/2 year low

Commenter and Blogger RJS adds more detail to what I would suggest is a coming shortage of oil and oil products. Focus on Fracking US crude supplies at a 35 month low; total supplies of oil and all products made from it at a 6 1/2 year low… US oil data from the US Energy […]

Returning to work and unemployment benefits

Diane Lim writes an analysis of the economic theory of the marginal incentives people have to go back to work at her blog EconomistMom. Worth a visit: Quote: “Get ready to see lots of press on the ending of pandemic unemployment benefits in some parts of the country and what it shows about how much […]

Biden’s American Rescue Plan Act Improves the ACA for All Incomes

President Biden’s temporary ARPA Improves ACA Subsidies through 2022. xpostfactoid: Will 60-64 year-olds have a choice between Medicare and Obamacare? What will that look like?, ARP puts more ‘affordable’ in the Affordable Care Act | healthinsurance.org and How the American Rescue Plan Act will boost marketplace premium subsidies | healthinsurance.org If you have not been […]

New home sales continue rebound in August, as price increases continue slight deceleration

New home sales continue rebound in August, as price increases continue slight deceleration Housing is a long leading sector of the economy, and new home sales, while very noisy and heavily revised, tend to lead all of the other housing indicators. [Note: FRED hasn’t updated its charts with this morning’s information, so graphs below do […]

Reconciliation and Climate-Smart Agriculture

Angry Bear’s Mike Smith; I am a little baffled by our governments assessment of agriculture. Just today they released a few details about paying farmers to plant cover crop, as per this article here. House Budget Plan Offers Big Injection of Funds in USDA Conservation Programs House Budget Plan Offers Big Injection of Funds in […]