Back when we were grad students at UNC-Chapel Hill from 1977-82, my wife and I made several trips to the Outer Banks. One reason was to visit her uncle and his family, who lived in Buxton, just north of Hatteras lighthouse. What struck me then was how many people lived in homes on the coast […]

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. With the bond market anticipating Fed rate cuts ahead, it has already lowered mortgage rates somewhat on its own. That has led to a jump in new applications, and to an even bigger spike in refinancing. As usual, clicking over and reading […]

Also depicted by Bill McBride at Calculated Risk – MBA: “Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in Q2 2024” WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 15, 2024) – The mortgage delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.97 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2024, according […]

GOP’s attack on Americans’ retirement savings just went to the next disgusting level, Opinion, Alternet. “To protect older Americans’ life savings, President Biden pledged in October to crack down on financial advisers who recommend investments just because they pay higher commissions. Then the insurance industry got to work.” Explained: The Controversy Over Tim Walz’s Military Service, […]

 – by New Deal democrat The effects of Hurricane Beryl had just enough of an effect on home building in July to cause me not to hoist a yellow recession caution flag in this important leading sector. While the hurricane had no significant effect on permits, it likely did have an effect on starts and […]

by Lloyd Alter Carbon Upfront! The economist John Maynard Keynes purportedly said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” I am considering changing my mind about 3D printed houses. I wrote eight years ago: “I am not a total skeptic about 3D-printed houses. I think there is a place for them—on the […]

by David Zetland The one-handed economist Benefit-cost accounting (BCA) began with a simple comparison of monetary benefits and costs, e.g., should I invest $100 in exchange for a return of $10 per year. Then people wanted to compare more abstract values, such as the benefit of a vacation or sandwich or education against the costs […]

 – by New Deal democrat In the past, industrial production has been the King of Coincident Indicators, since its peaks and troughs tended to coincide almost exactly with the onset and endings of recessions. That weighting has faded somewhat since the accession of China to the world trading system in 1999 an the wholesale flight […]

 – by New Deal democrat The second point of economic data released this morning, retail sales, were also positive. On a nominal basis, retail sales in July rose 1.0%. After adjusting for inflation, they rose 0.8% to the highest level so far this year. The below graph norms both real retail sales (dark blue) and […]

 – by New Deal democrat Last week I pointed out that the YoY increases in initial and continuing jobless claims appeared to be all about Texas in the wake of Beryl. This week there was good news even with some continued hurricane Beryl effects in Texas. Initial claims declined -7,000 to 227,000 for the week, […]