Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Evidence Shows Minimum Wage Increases Will Cause Job Losses is Largely Wrong-Headed

Largely speaking direct labor is not the issue of costs have I have presented in another post. It is the overhead such as healthcare insurance which can better handled in another manner. Inflation grows and minimum wage income is stagnant. Studies have found little or no job loss due to Minimum Wage Laws, Economic Policy […]

Manufacturing remains in contraction, with construction on the brink

– by New Deal democrat This month we started the month with not just the usual two important reports on the leading sectors of manufacturing and construction, but the JOLTS report for August as well (which I will summarize separately). In the big picture, I do not see the US economy falling into recession unless either […]

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in August; Up 3.7% Year-over-year

Over the last 6 months, the seasonal adjusted index has increased at a 1.5% annual rate. by Bill McBride @ Calculated Risk Note: The Freddie Mac index is a repeat sales index using only loans purchased by Fannie and Freddie and includes appraisals. See FAQs here. Freddie has data for all states and many cities. For […]

The real nowcast for the economy as of the end of Q3

– by New Deal democrat On Friday I highlighted the sharp positive revision to the personal saving rate.  That was a byproduct of a similar sharply higher revision to real personal income over the past two years. Here is what those revisions, to real personal disposable income, look like: Instead of being up 6.8% since […]

FTC Taking Action Against Rental Property Companies for Deceiving Home, etc. Renters

I did not know this. In Phoenix, etc. The subject of this commentary, “Invitation Homes” has approximately 7300 available homes for rent at prices which would equal a mortgage payment, property taxes, and the required homeowner’s insurance. I am sitting in the middle of all of this in AZ. The only reason I can think […]

John Deere Maintains Profits and Shareholder Value by Whacking Labor

Nothing new under the sun here. Maintaining profits has been a matter of fact for decades. It became more popular under Pres. Reagan. Deere Reports Strong Profits Amid Layoffs of Workers Across Iowa, Des Moines Register August 13, 2024 and Kevin Baskins at the Des Moines Register reports on the Deere & Company layoffs across […]

EV fueling ports vs gas station nozzles

Kevin Drum has a post up about the present and future of EV charging stalls in the US. As of 2023, the number was 184,000, with public charging stalls outnumbering Tesla stalls 6:1. Is that a lot or a little? Well, lots of people say that they’re holding off buying EVs because of the range, […]

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Ticked Up in August

by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Single-family serious delinquencies increased slightly in August, and multi-family serious delinquencies decreased slightly. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 0.52%, up from 0.51% June. Freddie’s rate is down year-over-year from 0.55% in August 2023.  This is below the pre-pandemic lows. Freddie’s serious delinquency rate peaked in February […]

Abbreviated Report on Income in the US for 2023

I only provided a portion of the report and the 6 figures (one through six). The full report on Income can be found here: Income in the United States: 2023, Gloria Guzman and Melissa Kollar. The economy was not as bad as the politicians and trump make it out to be, The numbers do not […]

About r-g

if long-term interest rate r is less than the trend growth rate of GDP g Yesterday (technically very early today) I promised a post on why long-term Treasury interest rates are very important. In particular it is very important if the long-term interest rate r is less than the trend growth rate of GDP g. […]