Median prices for existing homes is probably at peak; expect inventory to continue to increase Existing home sales were reported yesterday for September, up 7% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis. While they are about 90% of the market, they are much less important for the economic cycle than are new home sales, […]
Jobless claims show renewed downward trend; still some slack in continued claims Jobless claims declined 6,000 this week to 290,000, yet another pandemic low. The 4 week average also declined 15,250 to 319,750, also another pandemic low: With the exception of the last few years of the last expansion, this level of weekly initial claims […]
Death Valley is not experiencing a drought. Neither is the Mojave, the Sahara, nor the Gobi. A drought is an unusually extended period between the occurrence of a regularly occurring event; an anomaly. For example, when it usually rains on a regular basis, then but doesn’t rain for an unusually long period; that period during […]
A Thousand Words, Version 3
New housing construction for September shows a big decline on the surface, but underneath shows stabilization This morning’s report on September housing permits and starts looks very negative on the surface, but on closer examination shows continuing stabilization in new home construction, following the general stabilization of mortgage rates this year. Housing starts (violet in […]
September industrial production turns down, but no major cause for concern Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. This morning’s report for September was negative, and August was revised downward, taking total production back below pre-pandemic levels. Total production decreased -1.3% in September, and the manufacturing component decreased -0.8%. The August reading for each […]
Why The Late Janos Kornai Did Not Get The Nobel Prize Apparently yesterday Janos Kornai died in Budapest at the age of 94. He was the greatest analyst of the socialist system there was. Indeed, his personal life saw the full history of it in in his native land of Hungary, where, being Jewish, he […]
Michael Smith Farmer and Agricultural Economist, “Farmers need more space for crops to meet mounting demand”- AgResource | Reuters Dan Basse of AgResource Co. analyzes the impacts of biodiesel and is throwing up a potential issue. Reuters interviewed an agronomist who is closely watching the budget reconciliations and the spending of a $350 billion yearly […]
Kawasaki Heavy Industries plans (2018) to restructure rolling-stock operations amid heavy losses, exploring such options as quitting the business and teaming up with other companies. This is unusual for a major Japanese firm to pull out of an industry, a country, and the United States. Or at least I find it unusual having worked for a Japanese company […]
Focus on Fracking: US oil price at a 7 year high; largest US oil inventory build in 7 months; global oil shortage at 2,400,000 barrels per day as OPEC output is 375,000 barrels per day short of quota. Commenter and Blogger RJS OPEC’s October Oil Market Report Wednesday of this week saw the release of OPEC’s […]