Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

US 10 Year Interest Rates

Why have they increased so much. The US Treasury constant maturity 10-year interest rate has increased dramatically since the FED started fighting inflation (after falling dramatically during the Covid 19 epidemic). The increase is not unusual — Monetary policy effects GDP and employment through medium and long term interest rates, especially including the interest rate […]

Personal income and spending hits a triple, plus a big positive surprise revision

-by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is now the most important report of all, except for jobs. That’s becuase it tells us so much about the state of the consumer economy. It is the raw material for several important coincident indicators that the NBER looks at, as well as several […]

Job continuity in America

I recently retired after working for the same employer for 37 years. My dad also worked ca. 35 years for his employer before retiring, as did my father-in-law. My sister worked for her employer for 40 years. Two of my sisters-in-law worked for their only employer for about that long. My daughter, on the other […]

Weekly jobless claims: good news and ‘meh’ news

– by New Deal democrat I’ve been writing for the past number of weeks that we were approaching the acid test for the hypothesis that unresolved post-pandemic seasonality explained the sharp increase in jobless claims in the summer. This week we are fully immersed in the 6+ month comparison period where initial claims in the […]

Ford New In-Car Radio System Eavesdrops, Learns, and plays Ads According to Your Likes

Excellent reporting by Motor Trend revealing how a new tech radio gives you music and can also eaves-drop on you. The result of eaves dropping is to schedule commercials that may appeal to your interests. The radio then will program commercial ads that may suit your interests. Maybe by introducing something new? What do you […]

Rebalancing of the Housing Market Continues, as New Home Sales and Existing Home Prices are Consistent with the “Soft landing”

 – by New Deal democrat With this morning’s release of new home sales, we have all of the important housing data releases for the month. So let’s integrate that into the overall housing outlook. Let’s begin with my usual  overview that new home sales are the single most leading metric for the entire sector, but […]

Bar semiconductor producers who receive government subsidies from stock buybacks

Subscriber to Reich’s column so I steal a commentary now and then. Funds given to Semiconductor corporations are being used to buy back stocks rather than invest in new capabilities and facilities. In 2010, we took hits on pricing by as much as a 20% increase in pricing. A take it or leave it proposal. […]

Home Insurance Rates are Rising Fast

Why home insurance rates are rising so fast across the US. Climate change plays a big role, The Conversation Millions of Americans have been watching with growing alarm as their homeowner insurance premiums rise and their coverage shrinks. Nationwide, premiums rose 34% between 2017 and 2023, and they continued to rise in 2024 across much of the country. […]