November housing permits and starts: the biggest news is not in the headlines – by New Deal democrat The report on housing construction for November was very much a tale of two very different trends – and the most important one will almost certainly be under-reported. Housing permits issued declined to 1.342 million annualized, the lowest […]
According to U.S. Department of Education data, total enrollment in teacher preparation programs in Michigan has also been steadily dropping. More than 23,000 prospective teachers were in the pipeline in 2008. That figure eventually dipped below 7,000 in 2016 before increasing slightly to around 12,000 in 2019. “New program launching to address Michigan’s teacher shortage,” […]
The moral and strategic importance of a Ukrainian victory seems hard to overstate. A protracted, frozen conflict would be a humanitarian disaster for Ukrainian civilians in Russian occupied areas and war zones, it would lead to continued slaughter of troops on both sides, it would strip Ukraine of critical ports, it would embolden further adventurism […]
Job growth beginning in Q2 looks to be substantially revised downward – by New Deal democrat Last week the Philadelphia Fed published a working paper suggesting that in the second quarter of this year only 10,500 jobs were actually added, rather than the 1,047,000 as indicated by the monthly Establishment survey. Here’s their graph: Here’s what you […]
I have no idea what is going on in Musk’s head, but hoo-boy. Overpaying, firing essential employees, scaring off advertisers, implementing half-baked policies then quickly reversing himself, provoking regulators. Now there are indications/rumors he is getting ready to bail. And the problem for Musk goes way beyond Twitter. Tesla’s valuation is insane. It’s been based […]
Weekly Indicators for December 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The coincident indicators, especially employment, are hanging on by the proverbial skin of their teeth. I don’t think they roll over until gas prices stop declining. In any event, clicking over and […]
The status of the coincident indicators – by New Deal democrat In addition to real GDP, which is only updated quarterly and with a lag, the NBER has indicated that it relies upon four other datapoints in determining the onset month of a recession: payrolls, industrial production, real income less transfer payments, and real manufacturing, wholesale, […]
The Political Economy of Effective Altruism by Peter Dorman @ EconoSpeak Back in the day, I used to give talks on child labor. I would always begin by saying that boycotts and shaming of corporations, while understandable as an emotional response, were unlikely to do much for the world’s children. This was because very little […]
November real retail sales turn down, return to negative YoY – by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators for both the current economy and the jobs situation 3 to 6 months ahead. This morning nominal retail sales for November were reported down -0.6%, which only takes back about 1/2 […]
Real average and aggregate non-managerial wages for November – by New Deal democrat With November’s consumer inflation report in the books, let’s update two of my favorite measures of how the working/middle class is doing – real average non-supervisory wages, and real aggregate payrolls. Nominal average wages for non-supervisory workers rose a strong 0.7% in […]