Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

AI for the win!

The last decade has seen many initiatives toward clean, green, and low-carbon energy, as well as a global shift toward electric vehicles and automation. Many of these initiatives were enabled rare earth magnets, which is why rare earth magnets are heavily used now and will continue to be used in the future. When my dad […]

Housing permits and starts the lowest since 2020, units under construction also decline further, but no yellow caution flag yet

 – by New Deal democrat I’ve written repeatedly in the past few months that I am paying especial attention to the manufacturing and construction sectors for signs of weakness now that the supply chain tailwind for the economy has ended. At the beginning of this month, one show appeared to have dropped, as the ISM […]

Good news on production is overshadowed by the yellow caution flag of flagging real retail sales

 – by New Deal democrat There was good news and not so good news in this morning’s two important data releases.  I’ll start with the good news. Both total industrial production and its manufacturing component increased a sharp 0.9% in May. Even after downward revisions of -0.4% in March and -0.3% in April, both were […]

Immigration and the housing market freeze are making the “last mile” of disinflation harder, not the Phillips Curve

If you look at Part 1 and Part 2 of The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054 CBO projections. The estimation of Net Immigration varies anywhere from 2.7 to 3.3 million to the US in 2024. In Part 1, of CBO’s current estimates, net immigration is larger than the agency estimated last year, by 0.7 million people […]

Initial jobless claims now in a clear uptrend – but is it unresolved post-pandemic seasonality?

 – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose significantly last week, up 13,000 to 242,000, the highest level since last August. The four-week moving average rose 4,750 to 227,000, the highest level since last September. And with the usual one-week delay, continuing claims rose 30,000 to 1.820 million, the highest since this January: There […]

May CPI continued to be all about shelter

May CPI continued to be all about shelter  – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices in May showed no inflation at all, as a decline in gas prices helped the headline number come in unchanged. YoY inflation decelerated -0.1% to 3.3% – continuing in the narrow 3.0%-3.4% range it has been in for the last […]

The costs of stalemate in Ukraine

Apparently the administration is letting Ukraine hit military targets in Russia, though still with some restrictions.  This is way overdue.  It seems clear that Russia under Putin is an expansionist power.  Only a decisive defeat will prevent brutal ethnic cleansing in Ukraine.  Defeat may also lead Putin to refrain from further aggression against his neighbors, […]

US Oil Dealing Adds to Energy Dept. Coffers

WSJ. President Biden’s unprecedented release of oil from the U.S. petroleum reserves in 2022 turned the White House into an unusually active player in the volatile crude market. The flood of emergency supplies helped arrest surging oil prices after Russia invaded Ukraine and pulled billions of dollars into the Energy Department’s coffers in the process. Oil […]

Is your Big SUV Really Safe?

If you are driving a big behemoth SUV thinking you are safer, maybe you should think about another vehicle. Here are some results. Logan Carter at Jalopnik gives us the break down. It is picked up in Quartz Business News. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) just released new crash test results for three full-size, three-row SUVs. The Ford […]