Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Some Angry Bear Updates

Two good commentaries coming up on Angry Bear as written by Joyce Vance and Robert Reich. Both are addressing what is going on with the economy or Black Monday (Reich) and the other by Joyce Vance and the Vice President choice and SCOTUS issues. Both are good commentaries. Got another on Covid which I am […]

Angry Bear’s New Deal democrat v. Al Jazeera’s Megha Bahree . . . U.S. Economy Recessionary?

Angry Bears New Deal democrat; July jobs report: Establishment survey weak (but still positive), Household survey (even more) recessionary. Last week: “In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In the last several months I […]

Why Did the US give away $52bn to corporations like Intel?

A counter argument by Robert Reich about Pres. Joe Bidens 2021 CHIPS Act. Why Did the US give away $52bn to corporations like Intel? by Robert Reich The Guardian Congress will soon put final touches on the Chips Act, which will provide more than $52bn to companies that design and make semiconductor chips. The subsidy is […]

Boom in U.S. Construction of Manufacturing Facilities

This piece is a review on what is happening in increasing manufacturing capacity for computer, electronic, and electrical manufacturing. Where I am, there is increasing builds of facilities for each of those products. That being around the Phoenix area. One facility they have been working on for two years now and it appears to be […]

Establishment Jobs survey weak and Household Jobs survey almost recessionary

July jobs report: Establishment survey weak (but still positive), Household survey (even more) recessionary  – by New Deal democrat In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In the last several months I have also […]

Jobless claims increase, no longer positive and neutral

Jobless claims increase; no longer positive but neutral (and likely still affected by unresolved seasonality)  – by New Deal democrat I’m still on the road, so this will be an abbreviated report. Initial claims rose 14,000 to 249,000, the highest since last August. The four week moving average rose 2,500 to 238,000, the highest since […]

Again not recessionary, but more evidence the Fed should start to lower rates now.

Coincident real GDP metric is good, but leading indicators from the GDP report are not: is the Fed listening?  – by New Deal democrat Real GDP grew 0.7% in Q2, or a 2.8% annualized rate, a perfectly good number in line with the past three years: Probably even more importantly, the GDP deflator increased 0.6% […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators July 15 – 19 2024

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While several of the monthly updates I’ve discussed here in the past week have tiptoed in the direction of yellow caution flags, that’s not apparent at all in the high frequency data that is updated every week, much of which comes from […]