Jobless claims: neutral – with an extra grain of salt – by New Deal democrat As I cautioned last weekend in my “Weekly Indicators” update, we have entered that period of the year where Holiday seasonality means take everything with at least a little grain of salt. For example, this year Thanksgiving was almost one […]
The numbers of school bus drivers decreased by 12.5% from 2019 till 2024. Low pay has been much of the factor in driving the shortage. School bus driver earned 43% less than the median weekly wage for all workers. The shortage is a result of more than a decade of disinvestment in these workers and […]
But not in the way Mikie Johnson believes. “House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Monday slammed President Biden for his decision to pardon his son Hunter, calling the move an abuse of the justice system. Johnson rips Hunter Biden pardon, saying trust in justice system damaged, The Hill ‘President Biden insisted many times he would never pardon his […]
– by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data begins with the ISM manufacturing index, and with a one month delay, construction spending. Because manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, and was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession occurring, I now use an economically weighted three […]
The Vera Institutes report on Jails and Prisons is accurate. I am basing this comment on what I know about them in the past. Obviously, things have changed over time. It is good to see a decrease. Perhaps they have found better ways to handle minor issues other than the county jail or state prisons. […]
– by New Deal democrat Let me finish catching up this week with a quick look at personal income and spending, which were reported on Wednesday. The “big” takeaway I’ve seen elsewhere is that inflation picked up, and maybe will complicate the Fed’s task. But I don’t see where it’s such a big deal. The […]
Social Security is sustainable. I do not know how many times Dale, Arne, and Bruce have had to explain this. And no, the US has not been on the Gold Standard for domestic transactions since 1933. In 1971, the US left the Gold Standard for International transactions under President Nixon. The U.S. switched to a […]
Today, I chose to put up a few stories about Thanksgiving Days in the past. This instead of the usual commentaries we would write at Angry Bear. I believe they are good reads. I hope you enjoy your Thanksgiving Day. There is much to enjoy with family and friends. I spent time out of country […]
Mexico buys about $300 billion worth of goods from us every year, mostly machinery, oil, autos, food and office equipment. If Trump imposes a 25% tariff on Mexican imports, you can be sure that Mexico will retaliate, at the expense of American jobs. Meanwhile, Mexico will certainly be looking to source these goods from China […]
For 4 decades I have been trying to deal with, what seems to me to be a contradiction between empirical results. Kahneman and Twersky note two things. One is diagnostic expectations – people over react to useful signals of membership in a group – diagnostic symptoms. One example is that red hair is diagnostic of […]