Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Retail Theft

Is theft on the rise or is this another way to winning an election by promising to fight crime. It does get votes as people believe what they want to hear. Shoplifting is not actually on the rise. Once again, the media uses such to sell itself. The Truth about Retail Theft – by Sam […]

Whither housing? A look at interest rate and inflationary considerations

– by New Deal democrat Starting tomorrow we get to the time of month when the data on the important long leading sector of housing begins to be reported. So let me update a few important points about where this sector is likely going and its effects on the economy. As we probably all know […]

RFK Jr and the food-as-medicine trope

RFK Jr and the food-as-medicine trope Anti-vaxxer and brain-worm afflicted RFK Jr has announced, among his priorities, to use federal money to get people to eat better. From The Palm Beach Post: “The former independent presidential candidate is a big fan of Trump but not so much about the president-elect’s fast-food diet. “During an interview […]

Forever Chemicals Released into Waterways

US EPA Enables Polluting Plastics Plants by Failing to Update Wastewater Limits, Report Says  – as reported by r. j. sigmund Federal regulators have enabled US plastics plants across the country to dump dangerous chemicals into waterways by failing to update wastewater limits for over 30 years, according to a new analysis by a watchdog […]

Review of the Tax Code and Who Benefited the Most from the Breaks in It

A review of the tax break impacts from 1981 till 2020 and who benefited the most from them. I found it to be interesting and detailed in what was occurring during this time period. As you read it and review the graphs, I believe you will find the majority of the tax breaks were targeting […]

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

by Bill McBride Calculated Risk From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today . . . I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.97 million in October, up 3.4% from September’s […]

Watch Months-of-Supply! Housing

Watch Months-of-Supply! by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Both inventory and sales are well below pre-pandemic levels, and I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply to forecast price changes. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months – and that is unlikely any time soon – however, as expected, months-of-supply is above 2019 […]

On Remembrance Day

 – by New Deal democrat Today in the US is officially Veterans Day, in which we salute the service of all veterans. But it started – and still continues in some countries – as Remembrance Day, a somber memorial to all those who were killed in World War 1, which ended on November 11, 1918. […]