Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Health Insurance Again and This Time with Krugman

If one were to attack real-spending as an issue to our economy and wish to lower spending, one of the places to look is commercial healthcare insurance. If I were the richest jumping -jack in the world, I would target Medicare Advantage which is paid extra to provide fundamental healthcare and up codes the service […]

New Deal democrats “Weekly Indicators” for December 16 – 20

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The yield curve is now almost entirely un-inverted, but in part because longer term interest rates have risen (not such a good thing). Meanwhile a variety of short leading indicators stepped on rakes this week, which may be noise, or may be […]

Dollar stores, a bellwether spending store, starting to see signs of belt-tightening

Dollar Stores Are Flashing a Warning Sign About Lower-Income Consumers. WSJ, Jinjoo Lee. Belt tightening from Customers at Dollar stores. Inflation has eased, wage growth has been decent and Americans on average still have more in savings than they used to pre-pandemic. Some might even say the economy has reached a much-vaunted “soft landing.” Low-income consumers, […]

Jobless claims: with a dash of seasonality salt trending towards weakness

Jobless claims: with a dash of seasonality salt, trending towards weakness  – by New Deal democrat As expected, jobless claims declined from one week ago, as the delayed Thanksgiving week seasonality moved out of the numbers. Initial claims declined -22,000 to 220,000, while the four week moving average increased 1,250 to 225,500. With the typical […]

Retail Real Sales

Real retail sales on the cusp of breaking out of their multi-year doldrums  – by New Deal democrat Consumption leads employment, and as I reiterated yesterday real per capita retail sales has a history as a long leading indicator. Which means that retail sales for November, which rose 0.7% nominally, continues its recent strong string […]

Looking at Five Long Leading Indicators

 – by New Deal democrat I haven’t “officially” updated my take on the long leading indicators – those that forecast a recession at least one year beforehand – in almost two years. That’s because the hurricane force tailwind of the supply-side deflationary unlinking of the global supply chain completely swamped everything else. So if I […]