Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Is Social Security Sustainable?

Social Security is sustainable. I do not know how many times Dale, Arne, and Bruce have had to explain this. And no, the US has not been on the Gold Standard for domestic transactions since 1933. In 1971, the US left the Gold Standard for International transactions under President Nixon. The U.S. switched to a […]

The Trump tariffs won’t actually happen

Mexico buys about $300 billion worth of goods from us every year, mostly machinery, oil, autos, food and office equipment. If Trump imposes a 25% tariff on Mexican imports, you can be sure that Mexico will retaliate, at the expense of American jobs. Meanwhile, Mexico will certainly be looking to source these goods from China […]

Diagnostic Expectations vs Anchoring

For 4 decades I have been trying to deal with, what seems to me to be a contradiction between empirical results. Kahneman and Twersky note two things. One is diagnostic expectations – people over react to useful signals of membership in a group – diagnostic symptoms.  One example is that red hair is diagnostic of […]

Thanksgiving Holiday plus Some

Angry Bears I will attempt to have something up to read this Thursday (Thanksgiving). I believe Joel will be on and off also. He has not put in for vacation yet. But then we do not pay for holidays! 🙂 I am also traveling on the 3rd of December to Chicago. My time in Chicago […]

USMCA used to be “a fair deal for everybody”

Back when Trump rebranded NAFTA as “USMCE,” here’s what he said about it: “We have negotiated this new agreement based on the principle of fairness and reciprocity…. This is a terrific deal for all of us….This new deal will be the most modern, up-to-date, and balanced trade agreement in the history of our country…. With […]

Crypto’s $245 million campaign finance operation filled airwaves with ads

Other groups interested in who wins the election as well as SEnate races, etc, Crypto’s $245 million campaign finance operation filled airwaves with ads not about crypto, CNBC In Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, a crypto PAC spent nearly $2 million on ads this cycle to support the reelection of Steven Horsford, a Democratic congressman who’s […]