July jobs report: Establishment survey weak (but still positive), Household survey (even more) recessionary – by New Deal democrat In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In the last several months I have also […]
Jobless claims increase; no longer positive but neutral (and likely still affected by unresolved seasonality) – by New Deal democrat I’m still on the road, so this will be an abbreviated report. Initial claims rose 14,000 to 249,000, the highest since last August. The four week moving average rose 2,500 to 238,000, the highest since […]
As taken from The Atlantic’s David Frum to which I subscribe. Bidens address explains why he was relinquishing power by marking himself as a modern Cincinnatus in actions . . . and his Republican rival as a new Catiline. Two political myths inspired the dreams and haunted the nightmares of the Founders of the American […]
Coincident real GDP metric is good, but leading indicators from the GDP report are not: is the Fed listening? – by New Deal democrat Real GDP grew 0.7% in Q2, or a 2.8% annualized rate, a perfectly good number in line with the past three years: Probably even more importantly, the GDP deflator increased 0.6% […]
Topic, we have not touched upon in a while at Angry Bear. The stats are there to support more rigid laws suppressing the illegal use of firearms and tighter controls on possession. I am sure there will be the naysayers. Ok, fine. Be polite in expressing an opinion. Don’t care about what Clarence thinks as […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While several of the monthly updates I’ve discussed here in the past week have tiptoed in the direction of yellow caution flags, that’s not apparent at all in the high frequency data that is updated every week, much of which comes from […]
General Motors Receives $500M Federal Grant to Electrify Lansing Grand River Plant by R.J. King DBusiness Magazine AB: Plant conversions from building gasoline and diesel driven vehicles to EVs. A timely move even if the newer models will require need modifications in later years. General Motors Co. today announced it has received a $500 million grant […]
Housing permits and starts stabilize, but construction comes close to generating yellow recession caution signal – by New Deal democrat There was good news and bad news in this morning’s report on housing permits, starts, and construction. The good news is that both permits and starts stabilized after last month’s initially reported multi-year lows. The […]
The inverted Treasury yield curve: we are in uncharted territory – by New Deal democrat We passed a significant anniversary last week: the spread for the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury has been inverted for over 2 years (blue in the graph below). The 2-year minus 3-month Treasury spread has also been inverted for 20 months […]
by Hayden Rooke-Ley, Soleil Shah, and Erin C. Fuse Brown New England Journal of Medicine Introduction The government will pay roughly $500 billion to insurance companies in 2024 to administer the Medicare Advantage program, including 23% more per beneficiary than it spends on traditional Medicare . . . equivalent to an extra $88 billion per year. Medicare Advantage plans cost […]