– by New Deal democrat Twenty years ago, Prof. Edward Leamer gave an important speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, WY, retreat called “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that speech he discussed the fact that, historically, private residential construction as a share of GDP on average peaked 7 quarters before the onset of recessions, followed […]

– by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the positive trend in initial jobless claims is one of the most important data points indicating there is no imminent threat of recession. That continues, but what is increasingly disconcerting is the completely contrary signal from continuing claims. Let’s deal with the weekly numbers first. […]

You will read more on the profitability of healthcare plans as detailed by KFF. A brief introduction to this issue in an article by KFF. In 2023, per enrollee gross margins were highest in the Medicare Advantage market, and medical loss ratios were lowest in the individual insurance market. While both gross margins and medical […]

St. Ronnie quoted the Russian proverb doveryai, no proveryai (доверяй, но проверяй) meaning ‘trust, but verify’ in connection with a nuclear arms treaty with the Soviet Union. Reagan was referring to the posture towards a political adversary. In principle, our government should be an ally, not an adversary. We ought to be able to trust […]

July down and last two months revised downward. The July jobs report wasn’t just underwhelming. It may have flipped the story on its head. Payrolls grew by a meager 73,000 jobs, far below the roughly 110,000 anticipated. Adding insult to injury, May and June were revised down by a staggering 258,000 jobs — the biggest two-month […]

Perhaps it is because our dear president takes on the image of a man who is borderline mad that the media fails to reveal what his actions represents. There are definite issues with his presidency. In the snap of a few executive orders the nation has lost years of progress. Some of these reversals when […]

 – by New Deal democrat In my conclusion last month, I wrote “In the first two months of Q2, total real spending has declined by -0.8%, while services has been basically unchanged. If there is a further decline in June, based on the above discussion that would likely trigger a “recession watch” signal.” To cut to […]

Musk’s tunnel drilling company, The Boring Company, has announced a privately funded plan to build a 10-mile underground people-mover connecting the convention center and downtown to the airport. Take that to the bank? Not so fast. “Musk also claimed during the first Trump administration that The Boring Company had received “verbal govt approval” to dig […]

 – by New Deal democrat This morning’s repeat home sales reports from the FHFA and S&P Case Shiller were not good news for sellers – but very good news for future consumer inflation readings. On a seasonally adjusted basis, in the three month average through May, the Case-Shiller national index (light blue in the graphs below) declined […]

Like commercial fusion power, Tesla’s robotaxis are always just around the corner but never quite here. In the case of Tesla, it doesn’t really matter because the marketing is the product. “There’s an old adage in the auto industry that if you want to move a product you have to “show the car.” Tesla is […]