– by New Deal democrat The regional Fed August indexes, including both manufacturing and general business activity, rebounded sharply, telegraphing that a rebound was also likely in the ISM indexes. On Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index rose slightly. This morning the ISM services index increased sharply. To wit, the headline number increased to 52.0, while the […]
Following up on Joel’s earlier commentary on Jobs. Maybe messing with tariffs is not producing the results Trump and the Repubs had in mind? A revision of numbers on Jobs report. “It is difficult to isolate the exact causes of this slowdown, but it’s safe to say that this administration’s policies (like tariffs) have not […]
A more detailed Jobs Report analysis by New Deal democrat. New Deal democrat was in Phoenix a while back. He let me know and we were able to meet at the Pomo Pizzeria on 1st Street. Great place to meet a friend or take your wife. The crowd is casual in dress. Good pizza too! […]
Quite a few people are ignoring or are refusing to get shots to prevent things such as measles, covid, etc. They have identified this as vaccine hesitancy. The term describes anyone who is doubtful about vaccinations or who chooses to delay or refuse immunizations even when they are readily available. The reasoning can be Religion, […]
– by New Deal democrat In the last few weeks, there has been speculation that jobless claims may have been affected by the jihad against immigrants, the theory being enough were being deported or else were simply afraid to report to work that the number of jobless claims was held down. But I suspected it might […]
– by New Deal democrat In contrast to much other data in the jobs sector, the JOLTS reports have been very much consistent with a “soft landing scenario,” and that trend continued in this morning’s report for July. As a quick refresher, this survey decomposes the employment market into openings, hires, quits, and layoffs. So to […]
– by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month begins with important manufacturing and construction reports which give us the pulse of the goods-producing economy. The ISM manufacturing report has been a recognized leading indicator for the past 60+ years, although of diminished importance since the turn of the Millennium and China’s accession to […]
~Two weeks away from another Consumer Price Index release which will be September 11 for August 2025. Some points . . . For July? Inflation was steady in July. This was only because of price declines for staples like groceries and gasoline. The declines helped to offset price increases for consumers. There are signs under the surface, […]
Weekly Indicators for August 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indictors” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most significant benefit of these high frequency indicators is to alert you of possible changes in trend that are unexpected. In the case of the past several weeks, that would be the […]
– by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded: “This was a very weak report, although not negative. If there were not distortions from the front-running of tariffs earlier this year, it would come very close to meriting a ‘recession watch.’ But by next month, the payback from this previous front-running should have largely abated. If […]