Consumer Price Index July 2025

~Two weeks away from another Consumer Price Index release which will be September 11 for August 2025. Some points . . .

For July? Inflation was steady in July. This was only because of price declines for staples like groceries and gasoline. The declines helped to offset price increases for consumers.

There are signs under the surface, including evidence the Tr__p administration policies are stoking inflation for certain goods and services according to economists. Not much of a surprise there and Repubs are too afraid of Tr__p to say much of anything. The effects of Tr__p policies will likely become more pronounced later this year. Where are the guardians of the people? You know, those people who people who put senators and Congressional Representative in office.

Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi: “Tariff and immigration policy fingerprints are all over the report. The tariff and immigration effects aren’t screaming at us, but they’re certainly speaking very loudly and over the next couple months they’ll start yelling,”

The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates the average household will lose $2,400 in the short run as a result of all tariffs the Trump administration put in place as of Aug. 6. More charts, graphs, numbers, and easily understood opinions can be found here.

Consumer Price Index, July 2025 (August 12, 2025)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, after rising 0.3 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in July and was the primary factor in the “all items” monthly increase. The food index was unchanged over the month as the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent while the food at home index fell 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for energy fell 1.1 percent in July as the index for gasoline decreased 2.2 percent over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.2-percent increase in June. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and used cars and trucks. The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in July.

The all-items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending July, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending June. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 1.6 percent for the 12 months ending July. The food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year.

Food

The index for food was unchanged in July, after increasing 0.3 percent in the previous 2 months. The food at home index fell 0.1 percent over the month. Two of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in July, while three decreased and one was unchanged. The index for dairy and related products rose 0.7 percent over the month as the index for milk increased 1.9 percent. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index increased 0.2 percent in July, with mixed subcomponents including a 1.5-percent increase in the beef index and a 3.9-percent decrease in the eggs index.

Energy

The index for energy decreased 1.1 percent in July, after rising 0.9 percent in June. The gasoline index decreased 2.2 percent over the month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices decreased 0.5 percent in July.) The index for electricity decreased 0.1 percent over the month and the index for natural gas decreased 0.9 percent over the same period.

The index for energy decreased 1.6 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index fell 9.5 percent over this 12-month span and the fuel oil index fell 2.9 percent over the same period. In contrast, the index for electricity increased 5.5 percent over the last 12 months and the index for natural gas rose 13.8 percent.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.2-percent increase in June. The shelter index increased 0.2 percent over the month. The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3 percent in July as did the index for rent. Conversely, the lodging away from home index fell 1.0 percent in July.

The medical care index increased 0.7 percent over the month, following a 0.5-percent increase in June. The index for dental services increased 2.6 percent in July and the index for hospital and related services increased 0.4 percent. The physicians’ services index rose 0.2 percent over the month, while the prescription drugs index fell 0.2 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.1 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 3.7 percent over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+3.5 percent), household furnishings and operations (+3.4 percent), motor vehicle insurance (+5.3 percent), and recreation (+2.4 percent).