Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Brief Stock Market Update for August 8

This is another way to look at the market similar t what New Deal democrat does in his daily reports. Typically this only goes to customers of an investment firm I have my retirement funds with at this time. For those concerned about a c&p, the firm suggests we pass this report along to our […]

A decline in the immigrant labor force is not a valid reason for Wall Street’s optimism

 – by New Deal democrat Despite some very soft employment and production data in the past several weeks, Wall Street has been on something of a tear, making repeated new all-time highs. Over the weekend I saw the following comment, which piqued my interest: It certainly does seem that Wall Street is dismissing the news […]

Over half the MAGA Murder Bill’s healthcare carnage will kick in Before the Midterms

Fellow Michiganer Charles Gaba has an excellent post on his site ACA Signups, “Head’s up: Over half the MAGA Murder Bill’s healthcare carnage will kick in BEFORE the midterms.” Brief introduction: Good place to go to for Tr__p’s Beautiful Bill Act information impact on healthcare. There is a large degree of developing uncertainty coming out […]

Seems like Robert Changes his Mind on Flu Vaccine

Quiet on Vaccine Endorsements, Loud on Vaccine Attacks HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. last month quietly endorsed recommendations from his hand picked vaccine advisors that everyone in the U.S. ages 6 months and older receive a flu shot for the upcoming season. The backdated notice appeared this week on the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ (ACIP) recommendations page without […]

Applying Prof. Edward Leamer’s pre-recession progression paradigm to the present

 – by New Deal democrat Twenty years ago, Prof. Edward Leamer gave an important speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, WY, retreat called “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that speech he discussed the fact that, historically, private residential construction as a share of GDP on average peaked 7 quarters before the onset of recessions, followed […]

The contradictory signs from initial and continuing jobless claims: what do they mean?

– by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the positive trend in initial jobless claims is one of the most important data points indicating there is no imminent threat of recession. That continues, but what is increasingly disconcerting is the completely contrary signal from continuing claims. Let’s deal with the weekly numbers first. […]

Insurer Financial Performance in 2023

You will read more on the profitability of healthcare plans as detailed by KFF. A brief introduction to this issue in an article by KFF. In 2023, per enrollee gross margins were highest in the Medicare Advantage market, and medical loss ratios were lowest in the individual insurance market. While both gross margins and medical […]

Distrust, don’t verify

St. Ronnie quoted the Russian proverb doveryai, no proveryai (доверяй, но проверяй) meaning ‘trust, but verify’ in connection with a nuclear arms treaty with the Soviet Union. Reagan was referring to the posture towards a political adversary. In principle, our government should be an ally, not an adversary. We ought to be able to trust […]

July Jobs Report – Not So Good . . .

July down and last two months revised downward. The July jobs report wasn’t just underwhelming. It may have flipped the story on its head. Payrolls grew by a meager 73,000 jobs, far below the roughly 110,000 anticipated. Adding insult to injury, May and June were revised down by a staggering 258,000 jobs — the biggest two-month […]

The Absence of Truth

Perhaps it is because our dear president takes on the image of a man who is borderline mad that the media fails to reveal what his actions represents. There are definite issues with his presidency. In the snap of a few executive orders the nation has lost years of progress. Some of these reversals when […]