– by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month begins with important manufacturing and construction reports which give us the pulse of the goods-producing economy. The ISM manufacturing report has been a recognized leading indicator for the past 60+ years, although of diminished importance since the turn of the Millennium and China’s accession to […]
~Two weeks away from another Consumer Price Index release which will be September 11 for August 2025. Some points . . . For July? Inflation was steady in July. This was only because of price declines for staples like groceries and gasoline. The declines helped to offset price increases for consumers. There are signs under the surface, […]
Weekly Indicators for August 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indictors” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most significant benefit of these high frequency indicators is to alert you of possible changes in trend that are unexpected. In the case of the past several weeks, that would be the […]
– by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded: “This was a very weak report, although not negative. If there were not distortions from the front-running of tariffs earlier this year, it would come very close to meriting a ‘recession watch.’ But by next month, the payback from this previous front-running should have largely abated. If […]
– by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims have been relatively subdued for the past month. Some have suggested that this is a byproduct of the large immigrant deportations which have recently taken place. Last week I noted that, “comparing the SA and NSA readings in the past several months suggests that [unresolved seasonality] has affected […]
Politics and Prejudices and other musings Jack Lessenberry is a columnist residing in Michigan. We never met when I was in Michigan. Recently, w,e have been having an ongoing dialogue back and forth. Next time I venture to Chicago, I will make the run over to Ann Arbor. Many good things came out of Whitmer […]
– by New Deal democrat In this month’s report on new home sales for July, the most important news was at the tail end, which I’ll get to last. As per my usual intro, while new home sales are the most leading measure of the housing market, they are very noisy and heavily revised – which […]
Congress needs to pass a funding bill by the end of September to avoid a government shut down. In theory, the Democrats should have some leverage in these negotiations due to the need for 60 votes in the Senate. Unfortunately, as Jonathan Bernstein details here, the Democrats have few good options negotiating with Republicans and […]
August 21, 2025, Loyola University of Chicago. Why is this university so special for me? Well . . . I did my Masters work there which took me ~ three years to complete due to taking all the courses late afternoons or at night. The trip down to the Water Tower campus was done by […]
What is possibly be “our best defense against future pandemics?” mRNA technology saved America’s bacon in 2020. RFK Jr. has been active defunding it. As taken from American Prospect. Since Joel was working on this technology and also received the test doses, I am sure he could add to this piece. 🙂 May 2025 finds […]