– by New Deal democrat In addition to my system of long and short leading indicators, and the weekly high frequency data, the third system I use to mark to market my views of the economy is what i call “the consumer nowcast.” Introduction I have various systems for tracking the economy — including high-frequency weekly […]
The one-handed economist I read this 1984 book maybe 30 years ago, and I remember that it was a gripping sci-fi tale. I also knew that William Gibson more or less invented the “cyperpunk” genre with this book — his first! I won’t describe the plot, which is quite twisty, or any big lessons learned (it’s fiction after […]
– by New Deal democrat We are in the part of the year when, post-Covid, likely residual seasonality has resulted in a declining trend in new jobless claims. Not this year. On a week over week basis, initial jobless claims did decline -33,000 from last week’s outlier 264,000 to 231,000, and the four week averaged declined […]
“Only One Side Thinks You Have the Right to Exist,” Bad Crow Review I really just want to be in Japan. Help a brother out. The thing that sticks with me about the guys surfing the Sada River is how powerful the waves were rolling inland and up the river from the bay. They were small, probably two […]
Credence Clear Water ear worm for you. I see the bad moon arisingI see trouble on the wayI see earthquakes and lightnin’I see bad times today . . . Credit Credence Clearwater Unfortunately, it is true the nation overall is heading for bad economic times under the leadership of Tr_mp and his followers who are […]
– by New Deal democrat So much is imported that industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” but it remains an important if diminished economic indicator. It has been trending generally sideways this year, and that trend continued in August. Headline industrial production (blue in […]
– by New Deal democrat Retail sales is the first of two very important indicators we got this morning. Per yesterday, with employment growth “dead in the water” since April, consumer spending – which leads future employment – is the single most crucial element of a turning point. It really is incredible how it takes a […]
Trump’s efforts to remove Lisa Cook to appoint a lackey of his choice appears to have failed. It is one of those Have you no decency moments. To which I would suggest Tr__p and his followers doing his bidding really do not have such. Especially when the motives for doing what they did come to […]
tomorrow we will find out about production and sales – by New Deal democrat With no news today, let’s take a look at why two releases tomorrow are especially important. Let me begin with employment, which is “dead in the water.” I’ve written before about how manufacturing and construction employment, and now the entire leading sector […]
Another part of making America great again are the beliefs of the fifties. You really have to be around during that time period. There was a carry over into the sixties. August 28,1955, fourteen-year-old Emmett Till was lynched after being tortured by two white men near Money Mississippi. The story as detailed. The two brothers […]