Industrial production remains below late 2022 peak even after end of UAW strike  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production historically has been the King of Coincident Indicators, turning up and down at the onset and end of recessions in the past. But as I wrote last month there are signs that has changed in […]

Real retail sales mildly positive, but still suggest further deceleration in job gains  – by New Deal democrat Before proceeding further, I should mention – and should have mentioned as to jobless claims – that we are in that part of the year where seasonality often wreaks havoc, so outsized gains or losses should be taken […]

Jobless claims: good news all around  – by New Deal democrat This was one of the best weeks as to jobless claims all year. Initial claims declined -17,000 to 202,000, a tie for the 2nd lowest number in 10 months. The four week average declined -7,750 to 213,250. With the usual one week delay, continuing […]

Producer prices, “sticky” consumer prices – basically, everything except shelter show nearly complete abatement of inflation  – by New Deal democrat The producer price index released this morning for November is yet further confirmation that inflation ex-shelter is simply not in the pipeline. Both total and core PPI were unchanged for the month. Both commodities […]

Eugenics is the practice of arranging reproduction within a human population to increase the occurrence of heritable characteristics regarded as desirable. Setting aside who gets to decide which human traits are desirable and undesirable, we simply don’t know enough about the genetic basis for things like industriousness, fidelity, thrift, honesty and countless other human behaviors […]

Real aggregate payrolls rise to new high as CPI ex-shelter continues somnolent  – by New Deal democrat With few exceptions, the November CPI report once again demonstrated how important fictitious shelter is to its calculation, as well as how important the inflection point of $5 gas in June 2022 has been. Headline inflation rose only […]

The issue of student loans and the debt after graduation no only plagues doctors, etc., it is common case amongst all students. Indeed with the shortage of Primary Care Physicians, one plan might be to lower costs for people enrolling in this discipline. Otherwise, lowering costs or maybe forgiving loans after a number of years […]

Scenes from the leading sectors of the November jobs report: why I sounded a note of caution  – by New Deal democrat I seem to have been something of a negative outlier with respect to last Friday’s jobs report. Not because I was downbeat – although I said there were “warning signs of weakness,” but […]

Open Threads are created for people to have conversations which may not fit in with topical posts . . . a comment which may be off topic. I usually offer up one topic to start a conversation. “Simply put, this small inholding, known as the “Kelly Parcel,” (Utah) should never be privatized. It is one […]

Infidel753, Don’t worry about the polls — yet, Infidel753 Blog I’ve previously discussed (scroll down a bit) why disagreeable poll results about next year’s election are not grounds for despair about the likely outcome.  In brief, while polling averages are usually a good indicator of what the public is thinking at a given moment, they don’t have […]