A business cycle theory of labor force participation and wage growth I’ve devoted a lot of time and thought, and typed a lot of pixels of commentary, about wage growth in the last few years. Some of it has panned out: based on past expansions,I expected YoY wage growth to bottom consistent with an unemployment […]
Understanding the simple strategy for the 2018 elections Pretend for a moment that you are a political strategist. Your party is the party in power. The opposition has been enraged since the moment of your standard-bearer’s election. In the special and off-year elections since, they have been showing up in unprecedented droves for offices up […]
A teaser about wages and labor force participation I was going to put up a short piece about wages this morning, but it has turned into a longer, more comprehensive piece, so in the meantime, here are some teasers to ponder. 1. There is a direct relationship between the economy generally, and child care costs […]
Weekly Indicators for July 2 – 6: long term forecast continues to deteriorate June data started out with another strong jobs report, but once again with weak wage growth. Motor vehicle sales and both the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing indexes were very positive as well. May data included and increase in construction spending and factory […]
June jobs report: another strong late cycle reading HEADLINES: +213,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate up +0.2% from 3.8% to 4.0% U6 underemployment rate up +0.2% from 7.6% to 7.8% Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: […]
May personal spending returns to typical late cycle pattern The consumer continues to do okay. That is the message from personal income and spending as reported for May this morning. First of all, let’s compare the YoY% growth in real personal spending (blue) with real retail sales (red): For the last 50 years, during all […]
The yield curve is already signaling a slowdown Throughout this expansion, I have had a sneaking suspicion that the yield curve (the difference in interest rates between short and long term bonds) would be the indicator most likely to fail. Originally that was because we are in a very non-inflationary period similar to that which […]
Gimme shelter update: housing purchase affordability Let’s update one measure of housing prices: comparing of the purchasing power of buyers vs. the price a typical house. There are at least 3 indexes. First, here is the N.A.R.’s “Housing affordability index,” updated through May. This compares their estimate of median household income vs. the median price […]
Further comments about the state of the housing market Here are some additional salient comments about the housing market right now. 1. Existing home sales are completely stagnant Not only did existing home sales fall for the month, not only are they down slightly YoY, but they are now less than 2% higher than where […]
Preponderance of evidence from poor housing permits points to slowdown in GDP The preponderance of evidence, based on this morning’s report on housing permits and starts, is that increased interest rates and continuing increased prices are beginning to take a bite out of the market. First of all, let’s take a look at single family […]