This may be the most important housing chart of springtime 2021 My longform housing market analysis is almost complete, and will probably get posted later today or tomorrow at Seeking Alpha. I’ll post a link here once that is done. In the meantime, consider the following. The Case Shiller national house price index had another […]
Coronavirus dashboard for March 28: good news … < sigh > … and bad news According to the CDC, there have been 30.3 Million *confirmed* cases of COVID-19 in the US, and 550,000 deaths.The true number of actual infections is probably much higher. On the good news front, the CDC says that 36.2% of the […]
– by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. For the first time since I started tracking this data, literally every single one of the coincident indicators is positive. We are starting to experience a boom in economic growth that I expect to continue throughout most if not all of this […]
February personal income and spending decline: the back end of January stimulus payments Last month I wrote that the: “report on January personal income and spending shows just how important the stimulus packages enacted by the federal government both last spring and last month have been to sustaining the economy.” The truth of that was […]
February personal income and spending decline: the back end of January stimulus payments by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that the: “report on January personal income and spending shows just how important the stimulus packages enacted by the federal government both last spring and last month have been to sustaining the economy.” The […]
Jobless claims make new pandemic lows at last New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether, as the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and social activities […]
Seconding Paul Krugman: inflationary pressures will be a transient phenomenon in 2021 (but will they cause a recession in 2022?) – by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman argues once’s again this morning that any increase in inflation this year as part of a post-pandemic boom will be transitory: I agree. I want to elaborate on one […]
Economic data and coronavirus quick hits I really need to rouse myself to write a long-form piece on interest rates, housing, and the economy to post over at Seeking Alpha. Ugh! In the meantime, here are a few quick hits on some important or noteworthy new data. 1. New home sales – interest rates bite, […]
Coronavirus dashboard for March 22: crossing an important threshold, to the *good* side The US is on the verge of crossing an important threshold: as of today, the 7 day average of COVID 19 deaths in the US has declined to exactly 1000: The last time the US averaged less than 1000 deaths a week […]
Democrats: legislate the society you want to live in first; worry about how to pay for it afterward I want to add my voice to and amplify several themes I have read elsewhere in recent weeks. To summarize: 1. If there is no majority to kill the Senate filibuster, reforming it into an actual talking […]