A housing market quandary: two completely contradictory reports on renting vs. ownership There are three potential areas of concern for the economy in the next 12 to 24 months that I see: 1. Inflation – this looks temporary to me. Demand side effects will probably fade by the end of summer, and supply side bottlenecks […]
Why March’s big jump in real retail sales augurs well for big employment gains through summer Yesterday I wrote that the steep decline in new jobless claims in the past 4 weeks likely presages another big monthly employment gain, on the order of 1 million or more jobs. Another very big positive for the next […]
March housing permits and starts – don’t get too excited Don’t get too excited about this morning’s big jump in housing starts for March. In the first place, it wasn’t confirmed in either total or single-family permits, which both remain down from December and January, and the latter of which is the least of all […]
Coronavirus dashboard for April 19: Much great progress, and some problem children As an initial note, there is no significant economic data until Thursday this week, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky for a day or two…. Today let’s take a look at the latest coronavirus information. There’s much progress on the […]
Industrial production for March disappoints – but only on the surface As an initial note, retail sales for March blew out to the upside, but as expected due to cosnumers’ spending their latest pandemic stimulus checks. People visit sites like stimuluschecker.org to check the status of their stimulus payment or verify their eligibility. This does […]
Jobless claims break on through – 1M+ jobs report for April looks likely As I have said for the past few weeks, new jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. With the number of those vaccinated continuing to increase, I have been expecting a […]
Wealth distribution in the US continues to be a first order economic issue Tomorrow (Thursday) is one of those days when just about Every Economic Statistic in the World will be released. In the meantime, no new data today. So, while we wait, let me send you over to this article by Wolf Richter analyzing the […]
Monthly consumer inflation rate increases by most in 10 years; real wages decline, but real aggregate wages increase – by New Deal democratSeasonally adjusted consumer prices rose 0.6% in March. This was the biggest single month gain since June 2009, coming out of the Great Recession: Leaving aside the pandemic, since the 1980s recessions have only […]
Coronavirus dashboard for April 12: more good news, more bad news The good news is, vaccinations work.Vaccine effect in the UK: By age group:
Jobless claims: progress pauses, as a new surge in COVID in Michigan and the Northeast causes concern New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. As the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, I expect a big increase in renewed consumer and social […]