JOLTS report for October: similar to previous 2 recoveries, but a decline in actual hiring may be a warning This morning’s JOLTS report for October showed a jobs market recovery that, for one month at least, paused. Openings and quits were up (good), but layoffs and discharges were also up (bad) while hires were down […]
Jobless claims rise: a break in the trend? This week’s new and continuing jobless claims all rose off of last week’s pandemic lows, but while I suspect the downward trend has broken, I don’t think we can say so decisively yet. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 228,982 to 947,504. Seasonally adjusted […]
Four measures of labor market losses in the pandemic Below is a graph of 4 ways of measuring the downturn in the labor market due to the pandemic: 1. Payrolls (blue) – this is the headline jobs number from the establishment survey2. Civilian employment (green) – this is the equivalent number from the household survey.3. […]
The libertarian vs. populist trade-off in the 2020 election and beyond A few weekends ago I wrote that “the Democratic ‘brand’ is ‘socially liberal, economically moderate,’ while the US electorate as a whole is socially moderate and economically progressive” citing a scatterplot graph of the 2016 electorate; and that: The path forward is to embrace, and pass, some […]
November jobs report: the “least positive” report since April HEADLINES: Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am still highlighting these because of their leading nature for the economy overall. These were generally positive:
by New Deal democrat First look at the 2021 economy: housing As I’ve pointed out for years, housing is a long leading indicator. It can give us a decent read on the direction of the overall economy 12 to 18 months out. So the strength in the housing market in the past 6 months has […]
November data starts out strong with a very positive ISM manufacturing index The first November data point, the ISM manufacturing index, was reported this morning, and while it declined from last month, it remained very strongly positive. The overall index declined from 59.3 to 57.5, and the more forward-looking new orders index declined from 67.9 […]
Coronavirus dashboard for November 3 Total US confirmed infections: 13,383,320* Average US infections last 7 days: 162,365 (vs. latest low of 34,354 on Sept 12) Total US deaths: 266,873 Average US deaths last 7 days: 1,430 (vs. latest low of 701 on Oct 16) *I suspect the real number is 18-19,000,000, or between 5 to […]
October personal income declines, but still well above pre-pandemic peak; increased likelihood of negative pandemic reversal in jobless claims Before I turn to this week’s report on jobless claims, a brief word first about October’s personal income and spending. Although personal income declined in October compared with September, more importantly depending on how you measure […]
Benjamin Franklin vs. John Locke on the Legislature vs. the Executive An initial note: there is very little economic data this week. Some house price information gets updated tomorrow, and then on Wednesday we get a slew of data, including Q3 corporate profits, jobless claims, new home sales, durable goods orders, and personal income and […]