September JOLTS report shows jobs recovery has been real – but will it continue? Yesterday’s (Nov. 10) JOLTS report for September showed a jobs market that continues to be, ever so slowly, on the mend. Openings and quits were up (good), and layoffs and discharges were down (also good). The only negative was that […]
Coronavirus dashboard for November 9: Wow (and not in a good way) US total infections: 9,968,155* US average last 7 days: 108,737 US total deaths: 237,570 US average last 7 days: 939 *I suspect that the real number is about 16 million, or about 5% of the total US population Source: COVID Tracking Project […]
The 2020 Presidential and Senate races: a postmortem Way back in June I started writing nowcasts for the 2020 elections. Here’s what my very first map looked like: And here’s what the last one looked like: When I pushed the “toss-ups”, by lowering the threshold from 3% to 1%, NC, GA, and FL also became “lean […]
October jobs report: extremely strong monthly gains overall, but at this rate still another 18 months from full jobs recovery HEADLINES: 638,000 million jobs gained. The gains since May total about 55% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report was 2,243,000 jobs […]
Slow pace of improvement in jobless claims continues This week’s new jobless claims were essentially unchanged (but at their pandemic low), while continued claims continued their decline, also to a new pandemic low. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by only 543 to 738,166, just above October 3’s revised pandemic low of […]
The Morning After Last night was truly a dark night of the soul. The rule of law in an American Republic simply will not withstand the re-election of jobless claims together with a continuing GOP majority in the Senate. Not to mention the prospect of continuing to shelter in place for perhaps years as the […]
September housing construction and October manufacturing both on a tear It’s the first of the month, so we get the last laggard for September (construction spending) and the first read on October (ISM manufacturing). Both were very positive in their important components. While total construction spending was only up 0.3% from a downwardly revised August, […]
The final 2020 Presidential Electoral College forecast: Biden 350, Trump 181, 7 toss-ups Here is my final nowcast for the Presidential 2020 election, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. For this final installment, I am also […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for October 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Neither of the two constraints determining where the economy will go in the next few quarters are economic themselves. Rather, they are (1) the course of the pandemic, which will in turn be […]
The final 2020 Senate nowcast: 51 Democrats, 48 GOPers, 1 true toss-up Here are the final maps for the Senate, including all polls since October 1. I’ll post the Presidential nowcast separately later since it is going to be significantly longer this week. To refresh, In the first map below: – States where the race […]