November jobs report: the “least positive” report since April HEADLINES: Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am still highlighting these because of their leading nature for the economy overall. These were generally positive:
by New Deal democrat First look at the 2021 economy: housing As I’ve pointed out for years, housing is a long leading indicator. It can give us a decent read on the direction of the overall economy 12 to 18 months out. So the strength in the housing market in the past 6 months has […]
November data starts out strong with a very positive ISM manufacturing index The first November data point, the ISM manufacturing index, was reported this morning, and while it declined from last month, it remained very strongly positive. The overall index declined from 59.3 to 57.5, and the more forward-looking new orders index declined from 67.9 […]
Coronavirus dashboard for November 3 Total US confirmed infections: 13,383,320* Average US infections last 7 days: 162,365 (vs. latest low of 34,354 on Sept 12) Total US deaths: 266,873 Average US deaths last 7 days: 1,430 (vs. latest low of 701 on Oct 16) *I suspect the real number is 18-19,000,000, or between 5 to […]
October personal income declines, but still well above pre-pandemic peak; increased likelihood of negative pandemic reversal in jobless claims Before I turn to this week’s report on jobless claims, a brief word first about October’s personal income and spending. Although personal income declined in October compared with September, more importantly depending on how you measure […]
Benjamin Franklin vs. John Locke on the Legislature vs. the Executive An initial note: there is very little economic data this week. Some house price information gets updated tomorrow, and then on Wednesday we get a slew of data, including Q3 corporate profits, jobless claims, new home sales, durable goods orders, and personal income and […]
Jobless claims: the beginning of a pandemic reversal? This week’s new jobless claims rose from last week’s pandemic lows, while continued jobless claims again declined to new pandemic lows. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 18,264 to 743,460. Seasonally adjusted claims rose by 31,000 to 742,000. The 4 week moving average, […]
Coronavirus dashboard for November 20: North Dakota “leads” the world Total US infections: 11,715,316* Average last 7 days: 165,029/day (new record high = 1 out of every 2000 Americans infected per day!) Total US deaths: 252,535 Average last 7 days: 1,335/day Source: COVID Tracking Project *confirmed cases only: I suspect the total number is on […]
John Locke: decisionmaking by standing rules set in advance is a foundational requirement for civil government John Locke’s “Second Treatise of Government,” published in 1690 just after and in support of the Glorious Revolution, is the founding philosophical document of modern liberal representative democracies. In it he anticipates John Rawls’s “original position.” Locke argues that […]
Housing permits and starts: more evidence for a powerful economic liftoff in 2021 This morning (Nov. 19) yet another leading indicator showed that the economy is revving to move ahead strongly, and is only being held back by the pandemic (and the horrible “response” by Trump). Total (blue in the graph below) and single family […]