Real retail sales continue (inexplicably) strong, still bode well for employment This morning we got two important monthly September reports: industrial production and retail sales. I have more to say about industrial production, and some general economic analysis about retail sales, which are pending at Seeking Alpha. I will post a link once that […]
Jobless claims: only one week’s data, but cause for significant concern Today marked the biggest increase in new jobless claims in two months, and one of the two biggest increases since May, while the slightly lagging continuing claims continued to decline. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 76,670 to 885,885. […]
Coronavirus dashboard for October 14: winter is coming Total US confirmed cases: 7,806,805* Average cases last 7 days: 51,038 Total US deaths: 215,887 Average deaths last 7 days: 714*Actual cases probably more like 14 million, or over 4% of the US populationSource: COVID Tracking ProjectToday let’s take a look at the most recent upsurge in […]
Consumer prices rise a “normal” 0.2% in September In September Consumer prices rose a “normal” 0.2%, the first such typical increase since the pandemic began (blue in the graph below): For the past 40 years, recessions had typically happened when CPI less energy costs (red) had risen to close to or over 3%/year. We are […]
College educational attainment by age demographic There is no economic data today due to the Columbus Day observance. So let me drop this graph of a metric I have been trying to find, of college educational attainment by age demographic, that I finally came across a couple of days ago: It is commonplace that […]
Coronavirus dashboard for October 9: everybody has to touch the hot stove at least once Total confirmed US infections: 7,605,218* Average infections last 7 days: 46,869 Total US deaths: 212,762 *Actual number is probably 5 to 7 million higher, or about 4% of the total US population Source: COVID Tracking Project In the last […]
August JOLTS report conforms to prior early recession recovery pattern Yesterday’s JOLTS report for August showed a jobs market that is still just beginning to mend. Hires were up, and layoffs and discharges were down, which is good, but job openings and voluntary quits both declined. We are far enough along past the worst […]
Jobless claims: yet another week of glacial progress Today marked yet another week of glacial progress in initial jobless claims, at levels worse than the worst weekly levels of the Great Recession. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 5,312 to 804,307. After seasonal adjustment (which is far less important than […]
In 2020, the “Blue Wall” is holding At 10 a.m. Eastern time we’ll get the JOLTS report for August. I plan on posting on that later today, but in the meantime here’s an update on the Midwest “Blue Wall” that failed in the 2016 election. Below are the smoothed poll results for Michigan, Minnesota, […]
2020 Presidential and Senate polling nowcast through October 3: a partial rebound for Biden Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, […]