Household debt and the pandemic This is something I used to pay a lot more attention to back around the time of the Great Recession. How stretched were American households in paying their monthly bills? The Federal Reserve publishes a quarterly update tracking this issue. Two of the metrics in that quarterly update are debt […]
Coronavirus dashboard for March 3: as good news on vaccinations accumulates, the Dakotas already appear to be shambling towards herd immunity There is more and more good news on the vaccination front. In addition to the fact that the single-dose Johnson and Johnson vaccine has been approved, President Biden has made use of the Defense […]
Two leading sectors of the economy – manufacturing, and housing – turn even hotter Last month I wrote that both the manufacturing and housing sectors were “on fire.” If anything, this month they turned white hot, with both construction spending and ISM manufacturing data at levels not seen in years. The overall ISM manufacturing reading […]
January personal income and spending show how important government stimulus has been to keeping the economy afloat This morning’s report on January personal income and spending shows just how important the stimulus packages enacted by the federal government both last spring and last month have been to sustaining the economy.After adjusting for inflation both personal […]
New home sales rise m/m, but signal caution for housing market going forward New home sales increased to a three month annualized high of 923,000 in January. This is of a piece with the positive news last week on housing permits. At the same time, the pace remains below the recent high of 979,000 annualized […]
Initial jobless claims: it appears that the worst of the winter 2020-21 increase is behind us Let me start off this week’s review of initial jobless claims by pre-debunking something I am sure is going to be said elsewhere: a lack of reporting in Texas did *not* appreciably skew this week’s numbers. Applying the same […]
Coronavirus dashboard for February 23: vaccinations start to have a dramatic effect Totals US deaths, Cases, vaccinated one dose and two doses: – Coronavirus confirmed deaths: 500,310 – Confirmed infections: 28,190,159 – One Dose vaccinations: 44,138,118, and – Two Dose vaccinations: 19,438,495. The good news is, roughly 9.5% of the US population age 18 or […]
Strength in housing and cars, oh my! The two consumer goods which turn down before recessions, and up before recoveries, are houses and motor vehicles, in that order.Since January housing permits and starts came out yesterday, let’s take a look at both. First, while housing starts retreated slightly from their December levels, the more leading […]
You’re reading the right blog: 2021 economy edition “You’re reading the right blog” is an old chestnut (for me anyway) that I used to say from time to time to highlight a correct forecast that your (not so?) humble blogger made well in advance of more widely read sources.Well, please bear with me for one […]
Jobless claims: huge upward revisions for the second week in a row The story this week is the repeated massive upward revisions to last week’s numbers This week, on a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 5,702 to 862,351. Seasonally adjusted claims increased by 13,000 to 861,000 (meaning last week’s original number of 793,000 […]