April jobs report: well, that was a big miss …. but look at the composition HEADLINES: +266,000 million jobs added: 218,000 private sector plus 48,000 government. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 328,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below. U3 unemployment rate rose […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for April 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Right now a lot of YoY readings are not very helpful, because the comparisons are against the worst of the pandemic. So I have been adding some comparisons with 2019 as well. The […]
Jobless claims: pandemic progress continues [Note: I’ll comment on the Q1 GDP report later today or tomorrow.] New jobless claims will almost certainly continue to be the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 or 4 months, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities lead to an abatement of the pandemic. […]
More signs of an economic Boom I have a new article discussing Monday’s durable goods new orders report up at Seeking Alpha, explaining how this data fits into the overall picture of a production-side Boom continuing in the months ahead. As usual, clicking over and reading will increase your knowledge of what to expect in the months […]
While house price gains continue to go nuts, housing remains much more affordable than at the peak of the bubble The boom – and maybe insanity – in house price gains continued in February, as both the Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes increased roughly 1% just since January! The YoY increase for both […]
Coronavirus dashboard for April 26: reasons for optimism all around Let’s start with an overview of total cases and deaths in the US: 1.7 in every 1,000 Americans has died of COVID-19. 9.7% of the entire population has had a *confirmed* infection. Probably another 5% to 10% have been infected, but were never tested.
More new pandemic lows in jobless claims: April jobs report likely to show over 1,000,000 new jobs added Repeating my recent top-line mantra, new jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. With the number of those vaccinated continuing to increase, I expect an ongoing […]
New and existing home sales vs. inventory I have a full plate in, you know, actual life today, so let me just drop this note here while we’re waiting for new home sales to be reported. I’ll update later when I have a chance. The evidence is crystal clear that, as to new homes (which […]
The US may have crossed an important vaccination threshold On Monday I noted that in Chile, where there had been a severe renewed outbreak of coronavirus despite an aggressive vaccination program, cases had plateaued, and this had occurred “when over 35% of the population had received at least one dose of vaccine, and 20% were fully […]
A housing market quandary: two completely contradictory reports on renting vs. ownership There are three potential areas of concern for the economy in the next 12 to 24 months that I see: 1. Inflation – this looks temporary to me. Demand side effects will probably fade by the end of summer, and supply side bottlenecks […]