April Industrial Production slightly disappoints – but only due to supply chain bottlenecks – by New Deal democrat Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators, and is the one whose peaks and troughs most frequently mark the beginning and end of recessions. It had been bouncing back strongly, but in the last several […]
March JOLTS report confirms that month’s strong jobs report This morning’s JOLTS report for March confirmed that month’s stellar jobs report. Job openings made a new series high, while layoffs and discharges made a new series low. Hires, quits, and total separations all also moved in the right direction.This report has only a 20 year […]
We all expected inflation to arrive: now it’s here This morning’s report on April inflation confirmed what we already knew: inflation, both from the demand and the supply side, was coming. Now it’s here. First of all, take the YoY numbers with a grain of salt. Last April saw actual price declines in the teeth of […]
Coronavirus dashboard for May 10: stay the course! The story in the US continues to be that vaccinations work!As of today, the 7 day moving average of new cases is down to a new 8 month low of 40,873 per day. The 7 day moving average of deaths is down to a new 11 month […]
April jobs report: well, that was a big miss …. but look at the composition HEADLINES: +266,000 million jobs added: 218,000 private sector plus 48,000 government. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 328,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below. U3 unemployment rate rose […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for April 26 – 30 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Right now a lot of YoY readings are not very helpful, because the comparisons are against the worst of the pandemic. So I have been adding some comparisons with 2019 as well. The […]
Jobless claims: pandemic progress continues [Note: I’ll comment on the Q1 GDP report later today or tomorrow.] New jobless claims will almost certainly continue to be the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 or 4 months, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities lead to an abatement of the pandemic. […]
More signs of an economic Boom I have a new article discussing Monday’s durable goods new orders report up at Seeking Alpha, explaining how this data fits into the overall picture of a production-side Boom continuing in the months ahead. As usual, clicking over and reading will increase your knowledge of what to expect in the months […]
While house price gains continue to go nuts, housing remains much more affordable than at the peak of the bubble The boom – and maybe insanity – in house price gains continued in February, as both the Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes increased roughly 1% just since January! The YoY increase for both […]
Coronavirus dashboard for April 26: reasons for optimism all around Let’s start with an overview of total cases and deaths in the US: 1.7 in every 1,000 Americans has died of COVID-19. 9.7% of the entire population has had a *confirmed* infection. Probably another 5% to 10% have been infected, but were never tested.