Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

RJS: EIA US Oil Supply and Disposition Report

Summary: US oil supplies at a 17½ year low. SPR at a 35 year low after the SPR largest withdrawal on record. Gasoline supplies at a 6-month low. ~~~~~~~~ The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending June 10th show that […]

Simone Gold Goes to Jail

Interesting story popped up on MedPage Today. “America’s Frontline Doctors’ Simone Gold Gets Prison Time” On March 3, 2022 Ms. Simone Gold filed a brief confessing (line 10) in United States of America v Simone Gold to being inside the U.S. Capitol on January 6, and regretting going inside. In a story run on January […]

Weekly Indicators for June 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for June 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. My paradigm is: first the long leading indicators turn. Then the short leading indicators turn. Then the coincident indicators turn. Finally the lagging indicators turn. For months I have been documenting the downturn […]

Positive Production Points to Continued Economic Expansion in May

Positive production print points to continued economic expansion in May The usual suspects are out, claiming that a recession has either already started or is imminent. Well, the big reason I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators is because empirically is the one whose peaks and troughs coincide most definitively with NBER recession […]

Downturn in housing permits and starts in May

An across the board downturn for housing permits and starts in May Housing permits and starts declined across the board in May. In the past year there has been a unique divergence between permits and starts due to construction supply shortages.  This has been reflected in the number of housing units authorized but not started […]

The fog of war and international relations in Ukraine

Understanding the situation in Ukraine and how it will likely evolve in the future is impossible for me, partly due the inherent complexity and unpredictability of war and international relations, and partly because the main players have such strong incentives to strategically misrepresent their actions and intentions.  Are the Ukrainians really getting killed by Russian […]

The increasing trend in new jobless claims continues

The increasing trend in new jobless claims continues Initial jobless claims declined -3,000 to 229,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average also rose 2,750 to 218,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 ten weeks ago.  Continuing claims rose 3,000 to 1,312,000, or 6,000 above […]

Vaccines?  Focused protection?  Not if you ask the fine libertarians at the Brownstone Institute.

Pre-COVID, who would have thought that a significant part of the libertarian thought collective would go anti-vax?  Not me.  But I stand corrected.  From a recent blog post at the illustrious Brownstone Institute: The people whose directives you are following talk a lot about “pseudoscience,” always accusing those of us who disagree with their directives […]