Initial jobless claims declined -3,000 to 229,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average also rose 2,750 to 218,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 ten weeks ago. Continuing claims rose 3,000 to 1,312,000, or 6,000 above their 50 year low of 2 weeks ago:
It’s now clear that initial claims have been in an uptrend over the past 2.5 months. If this continues until the end of this month, they will no longer qualify as a “positive” in my array of short leading indicators, although they have not risen to levels that would change their rating to a negative.
This is yet more slight weakening in the economic indicators, and yet more reason for concern about a recession as we get to 2023.