…normal levels, it would have little room to respond if the economy threatened to head into another recession.” His view is that the Fed should overshoot inflation to the 2.25%…

A fairly large number of economists have argued that Keynesians predicted that the fiscal cliff January 2013 and sequestration March 2013 would cause a recession. A fairly large number of…

…of these trends? Do they justify the “recession mania” that is taking shape? The Fed believes otherwise about the possibility of recession and clings to the only thing not plunging….

The intensity of Fed rate hikes as a precursor to recessions Between 1931 and the mid-1950s, the yield curve never inverted, and yet there were 5 recessions (1938, 1945, 1948,…

…2008-9 recession was extraordinary because a major financial crisis occurred. Dean Baker dissents (as he often does) arguing that the severity of the recession could have been predicted given the…

…and Watson who had a model which “predicted” recessions really well. In 1990, it never said a recession was coming. Their explanation was that it detected inflation fighting recessions —…

by New Deal democrat Q3 2018 update: “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator” One of the methods I incorporate into my long leading indicators is the “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator.” This is…

by New Deal democrat More evidence for a Q4 “Recession Watch” About a month ago, based on those Q4 2018 reports that had not been delayed by the government shutdown,…

…only false positive was in 1966. Every other time this range inverted, a recession followed. Following the inversion in 1966, the economy barely missed a recession, as payrolls, industrial production,…

…the NBER uses to determine whether the economy is in a recession or recovery/expansion. And all 4 improved from their “most horrible” readings in April. A recession is a generalized…