…almost flawless. If real aggregate payrolls are rising (blue line) the economy is not in recession. With one exception (2002-03), shortly after it peaks, a recession has always begun, typically…

…and finally the coincident production and employment sectors. The housing sector has been recessionary, and worsening, for many months, as units under construction and real residential construction spending turned down…

Just some basic information and explanation. A few notes on wealth and income and the growth for a few since 1989 K-Shaped Recovery A K-shaped recovery occurs when, following a recession,…

…data point can be updated based on last week’s November jobs and CPI reports: real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls. To recapitulate, these always peak before a recession begins, usually within 3…

…a recession, and in all cases where there was, with the same exception of 1944, the recession had already begun: A similar situation obtains for aggregate hours worked by nonsupervisory…

…FRED. link to graph. When the blue line goes below the yellow line, a recession was imminent 7 out of 8 times since 1967. As you can see, a recession…

…“official” recession vs. expansion metric is real personal income less transfer receipts (things like unemployment insurance), shown below: This was already above its pre-recession level in April, and with its…

Jobless claims: put the recession on hold! (For now) For the last several months, there had been nearly a relentless slow increase in new jobless claims. That trend has broken,…

The Fed appears determined to cause a Volcker-like recession  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday the Fed raised rates another 0.75%. In the past 8 months, the Fed has raised…

The Fed still seems determined to bring about a recession  – by New Deal democrat As I wrote on Saturday, several coincident indicators have stabilized in the past several months…