Continuing accelerated consumer inflation points to sharp slowdown, but no recession imminent Inflation, along with the expiration of the emergency pandemic payments, is one of the two big threats to…

Jobless claims continue to drift higher, are no longer a positive; but no recession signaled Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 235,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of…

Increasing trend in initial claims continues; on track to signal recession in November  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 5,000 to 256,000 last week. But hold your…

July new home sales signal a recession is near  Let’s start with reminders about new home sales data: 1. It is very noisy 2. It is heavily revised. But 3….

…YoY without there being an imminent recession. Continuing claims this much higher YoY has *always* signaled a recession, with no false positives or negatives. Finally, since initial claims lead the…

…turn down before recessions begin. … multi-family units under construction, which typically turn after single family units, have also usually (except for 2008 and the pandemic) turned down before recessions have…

…always meant recession. Currently units under construction are down -14.8% YoY: Four months ago I hoisted a yellow flag “recession watch” for housing construction, and last month I hoisted the…

As outlined in Monday’s report, NDd will cover the impact of a tariff caused recession in his daily reports. Daily T—-p tariff recession watch: no evidence of hard data deterioration…

…through recessions without ever turning down at all. Further, spending on goods tends to turn negative before the recession actually hits. And of course since consumer spending is roughly 70%…

…by this much, a recession had already begun. The only two exceptions were the late 1980s, where the pre-recession decline was -28.2%, and 2007, where the pre-recession decline was -25.6%….