…to forecast the great recession using just that variable and a trend. In fact, the forecast recession is even more severe than the actual recession. This note examines other developed…

(Dan here…lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts) Reagan’s Tax Cuts and the Volcker Recession Max Boot is a candidate member of the Rubin Gerson can’t be a conservative anymore, because I…

…it is now [Note: i.e., August 2018] (blue in the graphs below). That occurred in 1984, 1986, 1994, and 1998. Even though on none of those 4 occasions a recession…

…likely scenario, I already am on “Recession Watch” for a possible downturn centered on Q4 of this year. Another knock like the “mini-recession” we had from December through February as…

…up +1% YoY, and “core” new orders down -0.5% YoY.: “Core” orders are flat, but not suggesting recession, while manufacturers’ new orders are consistent with a recession. This does not…

…going back 70 years, counting 12 recessions, in all but 3 there has been steep deceleration before and actual losses no later than two months into the recession, with only…

…looked like back in June 2008, six months into the Great Recession. The first, big drop below zero occurred in February 2008, two months after the recession began: Only one…

The Coronavirus Recession has begun This morning we got two reports that confirm the beginning of the Coronavirus Recession: initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Initial claims…

Maybe This Is Not (Technically) A Recession? Here I am using what is the journalistic definition of a “recession,” also used in many nations although not officially in the US,…

Q2 2021 GDP: goodbye recession, hasta la vista recovery, hello expansion Nominal GDP before inflation increased 3.1%, while real GDP for the 2nd Quarter increased 1.6%. The real annual rate…