…think is the sensible way to approach the question, which is we look at recessions with different causes. We look at recessions that are associated with tight money to reduce…

…who is a respected economist stands by his prediction that there will not be a recession this year. (link) Yet he also predicted that the stock markets would rise modestly…

…from the NY Fed last week (h/t The Conversable Economist): The important point was that the relationship has changed since the Great Recession. Even though there has been a big…

…a business cycle. Then the plot rises above the line and falls to the left into recession setting up the next business cycle at a higher attractor level of Productive…

On January 6th, I made some predictions for 2016. (link to post). Let’s look at some of them. #1. I saw a higher probability than Tim Duy for a recession….

…There has not been a recession since 2009.  There have been no bubbles and no crashes.  Nothing dramatic has happened and certainly nothing bad, even if lots of deep problems…

…always inverted before the onset of a recession — which presumably means that it narrows before it inverts. But *how* does it narrow? Do long term interest rates come down,…

…the stage for a recession next year. Now that we are halfway through the year, let’s take another look at each of them. #5 Gas Prices One potential pressure point…

…which allowed it to devalue and preserve economic growth even as EU nations fell into recession. Indeed, the ultimate economic success of Poland came during the Great Recession when it…