Both production and transportation are down from 2022 peaks; why wasn’t that enough to cause a recession?  – by New Deal democrat While I have written about how the Index…

…bursting is followed by a recession. This means that a high relative price of housing has been an excellent predictor of low growth including a recession over the following 5…

…Almost simultaneously, the number of hours worked started decelerating precipitously in the months before the onset of the recessions, frequently turning negative shortly after the recession began. Meanwhile average hourly…

…I agree with Keynes – the data shows that expansions following recessions during which the government increased its spending are longer and stronger than when expansions following recessions during which…

…tax rates were reduced, it was a period of recession followed by recession followed by recession followed by the Great Depression. The longest consecutive months spent outside of recession during…

The NBER committee that officially determines the dates for recessions has a few favorite, or key indicators that it gives much more weight. One of the indicators is real manufacturing…

…induced recession of 1981) were preceded by the consumption rate of capital income falling. The implication is that one can foresee a recession by watching this rate. There is a…

…rate gets sluggish or falls, the economy is tempting a recession. The basic equation to determine the aggregate profit rate on capital is… Aggregate profit rate, r = (1 –…

…has taken a hit in every recession. In days past, RMHI would recover to a new high after the recession was over. There was no recovery after the 2001 recession…

…to see if a recession will occur or if the effective demand limit can be pushed higher to avoid a recession. I will add one more update on the aggregate…