…not see them as dangerous instruments. More on this later. More on this as you read about the Great Recession. ~~~~~~~~ Blaming Things Not Named Greenspan for the Great Recession…

 – by New Deal democrat The effects of Hurricane Beryl had just enough of an effect on home building in July to cause me not to hoist a yellow recession…

…historically, services employment almost never actually goes down more than a fraction except in severe recessions. The decline in employment during recessions is almost all about declines in goods-producing jobs….

…a T—-p Tariff recession starting? My plan for real-time daily, weekly, and intramonth updates“  – by New Deal democrat Normally on the Monday after the employment report, I do a…

…and that pattern has not changed. While the YoY increase suggests weakness, so long as the comparisons remain under +10% there is not even a yellow flag caution for recession….

New home sales: despite the noisy sharp increase in August, the last pre-recession metrics are firmly negative  – by New Deal democrat Have I mentioned before that new home sales,…

…recession had already started.  Further, there was a significant deceleration beginning in the summer of 2005 that did not correlate to any recession in the next year; and for 4…

…of 2025 was balancing just at the edge of recessionary readings. The below link goes to a graph of the four main monthly datapoints used by the NBER to determine…

…or more YoY without a recession occurring: Further, negative but relatively minor and stable negative YoY changes have been just as consistent with mid-expansion slowdowns as with recessions, and stable…

Rick Perry famously declared that there was no recession in Texas, even though the only way they balanced the budget was through emergency funding. Rick Perry and the Federal Reserve…